The Host

Julie Rovner
KFF Health News

@jrovner

Read Julie's stories.

Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of KFF Health News’ weekly health policy news podcast, “What the Health?” A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book “Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z,” now in its third edition.

Congress narrowly avoided a federal government shutdown for the second time in as many months, as House Democrats provided the needed votes for new House Republican Speaker Mike Johnson to avoid his first legislative catastrophe of his brief tenure. But funding the federal government won’t get any easier when the latest temporary patches expire in early 2024. It seems House Republicans have not yet accepted that they cannot accomplish the steep spending cuts they want as long as the Senate and the White House are controlled by Democrats.

Meanwhile, a pair of investigations unveiled this week underscored the difficulty of obtaining needed long-term care for seniors. One, from KFF Health News and The New York Times, chronicles the financial toll on families for people who need help for activities of daily living. The other, from Stat, details how some insurance companies are using artificial intelligence algorithms to deny needed rehabilitation care for Medicare patients.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of KFF Health News, Rachel Cohrs of Stat, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico Magazine, and Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Panelists

Rachel Cohrs
Stat News

@rachelcohrs

Read Rachel's stories

Joanne Kenen
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico

@JoanneKenen

Read Joanne's stories

Alice Miranda Ollstein
Politico

@AliceOllstein

Read Alice's stories

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

• Congress passed a two-part continuing resolution this week that will prevent the federal government from shutting down when the current CR expires Nov. 18 at 12:01 a.m. The new measure extends some current spending levels, including funding for the FDA, through Jan. 19. The rest of federal agencies, including most of the Department of Health and Human Services, are extended to Feb. 2.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he wants to use the next two months to finish work on individual appropriations bills, none of which have passed both the House and Senate so far. The problem: They would deeply cut many popular federal programs. They also are full of changes to abortion restrictions and transgender policies, highlighting the split between the GOP caucus’ far-right wing and its more moderate members.
• In the wake of abortion rights successes in passing abortion rights ballot initiatives, new efforts are taking shape in Ohio and Michigan among state lawmakers who are arguing that when Dobbs turned this decision back to states, it meant to the state legislatures — not to the courts or voters. Most experts agree the approach is unlikely to prevail. Still, it highlights continuing efforts to change the rules surrounding this polarized issue.
• Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) — who was the only remaining Republican presidential candidate pushing for a national, 15-week abortion ban — suspended his campaign last week. He, along with former Vice President Mike Pence, who bowed out of the race at the end of October, were the field’s strongest anti-abortion candidates. This seems to suggest that the 15-week ban is not drawing voter support, even among Republicans. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, the GOP’s front-runner by miles, continues to be willing to play both sides of the abortion debate.
• Amid increasing concern about the use of artificial intelligence in health care, a California class-action lawsuit charges that UnitedHealth Group is using algorithms to deny rehabilitation care to enrollees in its Medicare Advantage program. The suit comes in the wake of an investigation by Stat into insurer requirements that case managers hew to the AI estimates of how long the company would pay for rehabilitation care, regardless of the patient’s actual medical situation.
• More than 10 million people have lost Medicaid coverage since states began reviewing eligibility earlier in the year. Advocates for Medicaid patients worry that the Biden administration has not done enough to ensure that people who are still eligible for the program — particularly children — are not mistakenly terminated.

Plus, for “extra credit,” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: KFF Health News’ “How Lawmakers in Texas and Florida Undermine Covid Vaccination Efforts,” by Amy Maxmen.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: The New York Times’ “They Wanted to Get Sober. They Got a Nightmare Instead,” by Jack Healy.

Rachel Cohrs: Stat’s “UnitedHealth Pushed Employees to Follow an Algorithm to Cut Off Medicare Patients’ Rehab Care,” by Casey Ross and Bob Herman.

Joanne Kenen: ProPublica’s “Mississippi Jailed More Than 800 People Awaiting Psychiatric Treatment in a Year. Just One Jail Meets State Standards,” by Isabelle Taft, Mississippi Today.

Also mentioned in this week’s episode:

• KFF Health News’ “Facing Financial Ruin as Costs Soar for Elder Care,” by Reed Abelson, The New York Times, and Jordan Rau.
• JAMA Internal Medicine’s “Excess Death Rates for Republican and Democratic Registered Voters in Florida and Ohio During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” by Jacob Wallace, et al.

Click to open the transcript

Transcript: Congress Kicks the (Budget) Can Down the Road. Again.

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.]

Julie Rovner: Hello, and welcome back to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF Health News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Nov. 16, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might’ve changed by the time you hear this. So here we go.

We are joined today via video conference by Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Hello.

Rovner: Rachel Cohrs of Stat News.

Rachel Cohrs: Hi, everybody.

Rovner: And Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins University and Politico Magazine.

Joanne Kenen: Hi everyone.

Rovner: No interview this week, but more than enough news, so we will get right to it. So the federal government is not going to shut down when the current continuing spending resolution expires at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. In basically a rerun of what happened at the end of September, new House Speaker Mike Johnson ended up having to turn to Democrats to pass another CR. This one extends a bunch of federal programs until Jan.19 and the rest of them until Feb. 2. Most of HHS [the Department of Health and Human Services] is in the latter category, but the FDA, because it’s funded through the Department of Agriculture, its spending bill would be in the group that’s funded only through Jan. 19. Don’t worry if you don’t remember that.

The stated goal here is to use the next two months, minus what’s likely to be a sizable Christmas break, to finish work on the individual appropriation bills, of which exactly zero of 12 have passed both the House and Senate and been sent to the president. Meanwhile, in just the last week, House Republicans have been unable to pass any of the individual appropriations they have brought to the floor and a few haven’t been able to even get to the floor. Yesterday, Republican leaders pulled the plug on the rest of the week’s floor schedule, literally in the middle of a series of votes on the HHS spending bill. So Democrats are not going to bail them out on these individual bills the way they have on the relatively clean continuing resolutions because the individual bills include very deep spending cuts and lots of abortion and transgender and other culture wars riders. So what exactly do they think is going to change between now and the next deadline?

Ollstein: Well, there’s been a lot of chatter about how cranky members of Congress have gotten because they worked 10 weeks in a row. Most of us work 10 weeks in a row without destroying each other, but there it is. And so there’s the hope that when they come back …

Rovner: Yes, there were threats of physical violence this week.

Ollstein: And allegedly some actual physical violence. Most of us work 10 weeks in a row without assaulting our colleagues, but we are not members of Congress. So the idea is they could take some time to cool off and come back and be more collaborative, but really this is a problem the Republican Caucus has not been able to solve. You have dissent on the right of the caucus and the sort of more moderate left or more left side of the caucus. You have moderate members who are worried about getting reelected in districts that voted for [President Joe] Biden who are not wanting to vote for these spending bills that are full of anti-trans and anti-abortion provisions, which you could easily picture that being used against them in campaign ads. And then you have folks on the far right in the Freedom Caucus who are sort of tanking these individual bills to protest the overall trajectory of spending and the overall process. So this is not going away anytime soon. And, like you said, Democrats are not bailing them out here.

Cohrs: One other point I wanted to make, sorry, Julie, on the deadlines is that for people who are interested in health policy and PBM [pharmacy benefit manager] reform and DSH [Medicaid’s Disproportionate Share Hospital] cuts, all of those. Those all have a Jan. 19 deadline. So those will come with the first round. So I think for the people out there who are worried about those policies, community health centers, extenders, that will happen with the first deadline even though the full Labor, HHS preparations aren’t until the second one.

Rovner: Yeah, these continuing resolutions do carry some of these extraneous, what we like to call “extender,” provisions that would otherwise have expired. And so they’ll keep them going for another couple of months and keep lobbyists busy wringing their hands and keep all of our inboxes full of emails of people warning of terrible things that will happen if these programs aren’t continued. But I want to go back to the underlying problem here, though, is that first of all, the conservative Republicans say they want to put the budget on a different trajectory. Well, discretionary spending, which is what we’re talking about here with the 12 spending bills, is a tiny portion of what makes up the budget and the budget deficit. So even if they were to cut all of these programs as dramatically as they like, they wouldn’t have much of an impact on the overall budget. I’m sort of mystified that people don’t keep pointing that out.

Ollstein: Well, and they’re also cutting things that won’t save money. I mean, they wanted to cut things like IRS enforcement, which would lose money because then the IRS wouldn’t be going after wealthy tax cheats and recouping that government spending. And so some of this is ideological. They’re going after health care programs that support LGBT people, for instance, and that doesn’t save that much money. But there’s been a lot of speeches from Republicans railing against the substance of the programs and calling them “woke” and inappropriate and such. And so, yes, some of this is fiscal, but a lot of it is also ideological.

Kenen: Yeah, it’s a relatively small portion of federal dollars, but a relatively large portion of culture war.

Rovner: Yes, I think that is a very good way to put it because, of course, it’s a place where they can put culture war things because they have to come up every year. But yeah, I think that’s why we end up fighting over this. All right, well this fight has been put off until 2024, although it’ll be the first thing when we get back.

Kenen: Yeah. And nothing’s really going to change except maybe cooler heads prevail. Anyone see any cooler heads around there? They may come back a little bit more personally tolerant when they’ve had some time off over the holidays. But the basic ideological and political alignment and the loggerheads, it’s like the only thing that changes between November, December, and January is it’s colder here then.

Rovner: Yeah, that’s exactly correct. Yeah. The far right of the House Republican Caucus is going to have to realize that there is a Senate and there is a president and they all get a say in what these final bills look like too. So they can’t just dictate we’re going to make all these cuts and, if not, we’re going to close down the government, unless that’s what they decide to do.

Kenen: But I think they skipped that session in their orientation.

Rovner: Yeah. Apparently.

Kenen: They’re not finding, “OK, where’s the compromise? What do we really, really, really want? And what are we willing to trade that for?” They’re not doing that. If you give and take, everybody gets some victory, and you have to identify what victory you can get that satisfies you. But there’s no sign of any kind of realistic grasp that this is divided government.

Rovner: Right. And they yet to figure that out. All right, well let us turn to abortion, where there is always news. We are going to start in Ohio, where last week voters, by a pretty healthy margin, approved a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Now, though, some anti-abortion lawmakers in Ohio say, “Never mind, we can overrule that.” Really, Alice?

Ollstein: So there are efforts going on in both Ohio and Michigan to block, undo, undermine what voters voted for in these referenda and, based on talking to sources, it seems like neither of these really have legs. They’re sort of seen as just messaging. But I think that even the attempt to try to undermine or undo what voters overwhelmingly approved is telling and interesting. And, of course, it builds on all of the attempts leading up to the votes that we saw from these same forces to try to change the rules, make it more difficult. So I think when state legislatures around the country come back into session in January, we’re going to be watching closely to see if they pass things that aim to block these votes. So definitely something to keep an eye on.

Rovner: I did see that this speaker of the Ohio House has poured at least some cold water on this effort. The argument had been from some of these lawmakers that because the Supreme Court gave this decision back to the states, that means only state legislatures and not the courts and not the voters directly. Am I interpreting that right?

Kenen: Yeah, the speaker was pretty firm. He said … what did he say? It was “Schoolhouse Rock”? He basically said that the voters, they matter.

Rovner: Yeah.

Ollstein: And what’s interesting is that the court that they want to cut out of this in Ohio is very conservative. And so this isn’t like, “Oh, we want to block these liberal activist judges from weighing in here.” This is “We want to keep this solely in the hands of the legislature and not have, really, courts have a role in it at all,” although the courts are very conservative and tilt in the anti-abortion direction anyway, which I think is notable.

Rovner: We’ll definitely watch that space in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Well, elsewhere, in Alabama, in a story that I didn’t think got the coverage it deserved, the Justice Department is joining a case brought by an abortion fund and some former abortion providers about whether the state might be able to prosecute them for helping women travel to obtain an abortion in another state. Department of Justice says, “Of course, states can’t prevent people from traveling to other states for things that are legal in another state, but not in their state. Otherwise, very few people would be able to go to Las Vegas.” But the state attorney general has yet threatened to try to prosecute, has he not?

Ollstein: Yeah, so this is happening in a few states, but it’s sort of come to a head in Alabama in terms of treating groups that either provide material support for people to travel across state lines for an abortion or even just information, even just “Here’s a clinic that you can call in this other state.” Not even a formal referral, medical referral, but just information about where to go. The attorney general has threatened to consider that kind of a criminal conspiracy to violate Alabama’s abortion ban.

So this is an interesting test, and I think it may — like the travel bans we’ve been seeing proposed and even implemented in some cities, states, et cetera. They’re sort of trying a bunch of different things. But these are basically impossible to enforce. And so, really, what’s happening here is an attempt to undo some of the chilling effect of these laws. Right now, people are so afraid of being charged with criminal conspiracy that they’re holding off on, even providing publicly available information that’s likely protected by the First Amendment. And so they’re hoping that a court ruling saying “You do have the right to at least discuss this and even give people support to travel” will undo some of that chilling effect. And yeah, I think that’s sort of the key here.

Rovner: Yeah. Well, moving on to Texas, where a lot of these other travel bans have been tried, at least in some cities and counties, we want to go back to that case where a half a dozen women who couldn’t get care for pregnancy complications, because of the state’s abortion ban, sued. Well, now there are 22 plaintiffs in that case, including two doctors and a then-medical student who discovered her fetus’s lethal abnormalities at an 18-week scan. The Texas Supreme Court is supposed to hear this case later this month, but, Alice, this could really end up before the U.S. Supreme Court, couldn’t it? This is the concern of women who are not trying to have abortions. They were basically trying to complete pregnancies and have had things go terribly wrong. And, as you just said, doctors are afraid to treat them for fear that they’re going to be prosecuted.

Ollstein: Yeah. And so this is where state abortion bans are running up against federal protections for … you have to treat a patient who comes in who’s experiencing a medical emergency. This is the EMTALA, a federal law, and these things are in conflict. Anti-abortion groups and advocates say that they are not, and that medical care in these situations is already protected. But as we’ve seen with this chilling effect, doctors are afraid to act in these situations and they’re telling patients to go away and come back when things are more dire. And that, in some cases, in these plaintiff’s cases, has led to pretty permanent damage, damage to their future fertility, threats to their lives. And so these cases are not seeking to get rid of the abortion bans entirely, as some other lawsuits are, but they are seeking to really make clear, because it’s not clear to medical providers right now, make clear what is allowed in these really sensitive and precarious medical situations.

Rovner: Yeah, I keep hearing a lot of the anti-abortion forces saying, “Well, it’s not technically an abortion in these cases. If it’s an ectopic pregnancy or something or the woman’s water has broken early and she’s going to get septic.” And it’s like, “Except that medically, yes, they are. A termination of pregnancy is termination of pregnancy.” And that’s why the doctors are saying, “You can call this anything you want. We’re the ones who are going to get thrown in jail and lose our medical licenses.” All right. Well, before we move on, I want to talk some abortion politics. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who had been the only Republican presidential candidate strongly pushing for a federal 15-week abortion ban, suspended his campaign this week after what happened in Virginia last week, which we talked about at some length. When Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin tried to win back the state legislature for Republicans by promising to sign his own 15-week ban and lost spectacularly. Where does that leave Republicans on abortion going into 2024? Obviously, the 15-week ban as a compromise doesn’t seem to be flying.

Ollstein: No, it’s certainly not. And Tim Scott and Mike Pence were some of anti-abortion groups’ favorite candidates who were saying what they wanted to hear, and both of their campaigns have now ended. And so, meanwhile, you have the people who have been a little more squishy, from anti-abortion advocates’ perspective anyways, like Nikki Haley and [former President Donald] Trump himself, doing the best. DeSantis also sort of middling right now on the downward trajectory, seemingly.

Rovner: DeSantis, who signed a six-week ban in Florida.

Ollstein: Exactly, but was also kind of unclear about what he would do as president, which the anti-abortion groups did not like. It’s interesting, maybe telling, that the people who were sort of the staunchest anti-abortion voices have not seemed to do well in this moment, but let’s be real. Trump is the far-and-away front-runner here. It’s most important to examine Trump. And he’s sort of trying to have it both ways. He’s both touting his anti-abortion bona fides by talking about appointing the justices to the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade, taking credit for that. And at the same time sort of pushing this line of, “Oh, we’ll strike some sort of compromise.” He really talks up exemptions for rape and incest, which, by the way, a lot of anti-abortion groups don’t want those. And so he’s sort of speaking out of both sides of his mouth, but, at least according to the polls, it seems to be working.

Rovner: Yeah, maybe that’s the answer for Republicans is tell everybody what you think they want them to know. I guess we will see going forward. Well, I want to move on. I’m calling this next segment, “Getting Old Sucks: Ask Me How I Know.” I want to start with a joint project that KFF Health News has out this week with The New York Times called “Dying Broke.” It’s about, and stop me if you’ve heard me say this before, the fact that the U.S. has no policy to help pay for long-term care, save for Medicaid, which only pays if you basically bankrupt yourself and your family.

There is a lot in this series, and I highly recommend it, but one of the things that jumped out to me is that the cost of long-term care has risen so much faster than incomes that even if you started saving for retirement in your 20s — I started saving for retirement in my 20s — you’d still be unlikely to have enough to self-insure for long-term care when you’re 75 or 80. Joanne, you’ve spent as much time as I have, probably more, writing about our lack of a long-term care policy. Anything jump out at you from this project?

Kenen: It was a terrific, terrific story, and it brought to life that even people who are definitely what you would think of as economically comfortable, it’s not enough. It’s just the luck of the draw, right? I mean, if you die fast, you can at least leave money to your kids. If you die slow, you can’t. It was a really good story. But what I always am left with when I read these stories is it doesn’t make a difference. Congress does not want to deal with this. Julie and I actually did a panel for a health group a few weeks ago, and one of the state … someone from California came up to talk about us and asked, “Why doesn’t the United States have a long-term care policy? I’m going to change that.” And we were trying to be polite, but it was like, “OK, good luck with that.” And this is not a partisan issue. Republicans and Democrats both get old and Republicans and Democrats both end up needing long-term care, whether it’s in the nursing home or assistance in your own home. Republicans and Democrats both get Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia. They both get disabled. And we have a government that just plugs up its ears because it costs so much money and it’s an entitlement and they just don’t even want to deal with it. And generation after generation, it’s a disaster. It’s inhumane.

Rovner: And, of course, there was this brief effort in the Affordable Care Act with the CLASS Act that everybody was very excited …

Kenen: To nibble around the edges of it. The CLASS Act was good, but it wasn’t even solving the problem.

Rovner: And it went away because they discovered that even that was going to be too expensive. It could not be self-sustaining. And that’s been the problem with the private long-term care insurance market too, that you basically can’t get private long-term care insurance anymore because insurers cannot afford to sell it. They lose too much money on it, and therefore it would be too expensive if they actually charged what they needed to to even break even.

Kenen: Right. And there is an idea circulating, but it’s not getting any traction. It’s circulated in the past too, a joint approach, a reinsurance approach, that you’d try to strengthen the private long-term care insurance market, which is very broken. You’d try to fix that, but you wouldn’t expect the private insurance market to do the whole problem, so that there’d be reinsurance from the government. So for people who had maybe, I don’t know exactly how it works, say a year or two of expenses that private insurance would kick in and we would make that market work better and be there when you needed it. But then if you were somebody who had multiple years and you exhausted that benefit, there would be a backup entitlement.

Rovner: But I’ve heard this talked about for at least 10 years, and it’s never gone anywhere.

Kenen: It’s revived and it’s not getting … I don’t think it has a sponsor in this Congress. It did in the last Congress. There’s no discussion. There’s no … a lot of people think that Medicare actually pays for nursing homes, and then that’s a pretty big surprise because it only pays for very limited … it pays, like if you have surgery and you need some rehab at a nursing home for, what is it? Is it 12 weeks? I forget what it is, but it’s short-term. It’s a couple of months. It’s not dementia care. And even the other thing is when you read about the cost of long-term care, that’s just the room and board, that doesn’t include your doctors’ bills, your medication, clothing, personal aide, because people who are complicated and need a lot of care often need a personal aide in addition to the staff. It’s just a phenomenal amount of money. My kids don’t understand when I say we need to save money, they say, “Don’t you have enough?” And no, nobody has enough. Bill Gates has enough.

Rovner: Yeah, Warren Buffett has enough. Well, so, as I mentioned, one of the big problems with long-term care is that there’s essentially no private insurance for it anymore because it’s so expensive and because so many people end up needing it. That’s very different from Medicare Advantage, where insurers are and have been making lots of money providing benefits that would otherwise be paid for by the federal government. But Rachel, some of your colleagues have discovered that, and in at least some cases, those insurers are making all that money because they’re denying care to patients who need it. This is your extra credit this week, but I want you to talk about it now.

Cohrs: I’ll talk about it early. Yes. So my colleagues, Casey Ross and Bob Herman have been digging into the role of algorithms in insurance decisions for the past year. And they just released a new story this week about — with internal documents of a subsidiary called naviHealth of UnitedHealth — showing that the company was instructing managers to keep care timelines for a really expensive rehab that older people, I think, need after having injuries or something like that within 1% of the time that this algorithm was predicting, regardless of what their actual human doctors were saying. And truly, the stories behind these care denials are just really horrifying … of somebody who had a knee surgery and was expected to slide on their butt down the stairs because they weren’t paying for rehab. Families who’ve had to pay tens of thousands of dollars out of their own pocket after this care was denied because they saw that their loved one clearly needed money, and there was a class-action lawsuit filed, then after the story was published, by people who had deceased relatives who had UnitedHealthcare MA plans, and were denied rehab and later died. And so I think it’s just really eye-opening as to the actual instructions by managers inside the company saying that this is your expectation, and if you’re not keeping coverage care rehab timelines within this 1% margin, then you aren’t performing up to our standards.

Rovner: So this is basically AI being used to deny care. We keep talking about AI and health care. This is it, right? This is an algorithm that says, “Person who goes into rehab with these kinds of problems should only need 19 days.” And if you need more than that, tough. That’s essentially what’s going on here, right?

Cohrs: And the lawsuit did highlight as well that when people did appeal, they won most of the time, but most people didn’t appeal, and the company knew that. And so I think that was also part of the lawsuit that came up. It’s hard to prove intent with these things or what is a denial based on an algorithm? But I think this lays out the case in as explicit terms as we’ve ever seen from the internal side.

Rovner: It does. All right, well let us move on from Medicare to Medicaid, the unwinding — involving reviewing everyone on the program to make sure they’re still eligible now that the pandemic emergency has expired — continues with more than 10 million people now having lost their coverage, according to the tracker being updated by my KFF colleagues. And state Medicaid directors are predicting a year-over-year decrease in enrollment of 8.6%, which is pretty dramatically large. We also know that more than 70% of those being disenrolled may in fact still be eligible, but the state was unable to locate them or they didn’t file the right paperwork. Ironically, even with a much smaller caseload, state Medicaid spending is likely to rise because the additional payments that were provided by the federal government also expired at the end of the public health emergency. So states are basically having to pay more per enrollee than they were paying even when they were leaving everybody on the rolls. Advocates have been complaining all year that the Biden administration isn’t doing enough to ensure that states aren’t tossing people off who should still be covered. Has anything changed on that front? I know that the administration is sort of caught between this rock and a hard place. They don’t want to come out guns blazing and have states saying that they’re making this politicized. On the other hand, the numbers are getting pretty big and there’s increasing evidence that a lot of the people who are being relieved of their coverage should still have it.

Ollstein: Including a lot of children who absolutely did not do anything wrong in this situation. And so it kind of reminds me of some stuff during covid, where the Biden administration did not want to get into a public fight with GOP-controlled states and was trying to negotiate behind the scenes to get the policies they wanted to protect people. But at the same time, not wanting that open confrontation means that a lot of this is continuing to go on unchecked. And so the data is coming out showing that a lot of people who are losing coverage are not reenrolling in other coverage. Some are, but a lot are not. And so I think now that we’re getting, going to get into Obamacare open enrollment, I think that’ll be really key to see — can we scoop up a lot of these newly uninsured people?

Rovner: And we did, we saw the administration put out a press release saying that the early part of open enrollment has seemed very large, much larger-than-expected enrollment. And you kind of wonder, I’m kind of wondering, how many of those people were people who got kicked off of Medicaid. And, of course, we know that when people got kicked off of Medicaid, they were supposed to be steered to the Affordable Care Act, for which they would’ve obviously been eligible. But I’m wondering whether some of those people didn’t get steered and now that they’re seeing that enrollment is open, it’s like, “Oh, maybe I can get this.” I have not seen anybody answer that question, but it’s certainly a question in my mind.

Cohrs: Right. And coverage is more affordable as well because subsidies from the covid-era spending bills do extend through 2025. But again, people might see increases in costs once those end, if Congress doesn’t extend them. So even if we do see some people moving from Medicaid to ACA enrollment, then there’s a chance that they could see spikes in a pretty short amount of time.

Rovner: Yeah, I’ll be curious to see as open enrollment continues, whether they can break down where some of those people are coming from. All right, now it is time for “This Week in Health Misinformation.” I have chosen a KFF Health News story, which is also my extra credit this week, from science journalist Amy Maxmen, called “How Lawmakers in Texas and Florida Undermine Covid Vaccination Efforts.” It seems that in Texas health departments and other organizations funded by the states are now prohibited from advertising or recommending covid vaccines or even saying that they are available, unless that’s in conjunction with telling them about other vaccines that are available, too. In Florida, as we have talked about here before, the health department has issued specific guidance recommending against the new covid vaccine for children and teens and now men under the age of 40. Unless you think this hasn’t had any impact before the vaccines were available, Democrats and Republicans were dying of covid in roughly equal proportions in Florida and Ohio, according to a study published earlier this summer in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine.

But by the end of 2021, which was the first full year that covid vaccines were widely available, Republicans had an excess death rate of 43% higher than Democrats. So medical misinformation has consequences. All right, now it is time for our extra-credit segment. That’s when we each recommend a story we read this week we think you should read, too. As always, don’t worry if you miss it. We will post the links on the podcast page at kffhealthnews.org and in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Rachel, you’ve done yours already. Alice, why don’t you go next?

Ollstein: Sure. So I have a very depressing one out of The New York Times by Jack Healy and it’s called “They Wanted to Get Sober. They Got a Nightmare Instead.” And it is about these fraudulent, scammy addiction treatment facilities in Arizona, but it notes that they do exist in other states as well, that have been bilking the state Medicaid program for just millions and millions and millions of dollars and providing inadequate or nonexistent treatment to really vulnerable people in need, with very deadly consequences. And the places profiled in this piece really went after Native American folks specifically. So very sad report, but it sounds like more attention on this is leading to the state cracking down on places like this. So, hopefully, we’ll make some progress there.

Rovner: Yeah, quite a story, Joanne.

Kenen: This is a story, part of an ongoing series from Mississippi Today, in conjunction with ProPublica’s local reporting network: “Mississippi Jailed More Than 800 People Awaiting Psychiatric Treatment in a Year. Just One Jail Meets State Standards.” It’s by Isabella Taft. In Mississippi, if you’re unfortunate enough to have such serious mental illness that a court orders you to have treatment and there’s no room in a state hospital, they put you in jail while you wait for a room in state hospitals. And sometimes they’re housed in these facilities or rooms that are meant for people with severe mental illness, but they’re awful. And sometimes they’re just housed with a regular prison population. And the sheriffs say, “Wait a minute, it’s not really our problem to be housing … state hospitals have to fix this.” And they have a point! But in the meantime, that’s who they have. That’s where they end up. They end up in these jails, these local jails, and the sheriffs are responsible. And only one hospital meets the state certification for what these people need.

And some of these stays. They’re not like two days, they can be prolonged. There’ve been a lot of deaths, there’ve been a lot of suicides. It’s a really pretty disturbing situation. It’s sort of the mental health crisis and the mental health provider shortage and countrywide really writ large among some of the most vulnerable people.

Rovner: All right, well, we’ve had four grim extra credits this week, but they’re all good stories. OK, that is our show. As always, if you enjoy the podcast, you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We’d appreciate it if you left us a review; that helps other people find us, too. Special thanks this week to Zach Dyer for filling in as our technical guru while Francis [Ying] takes some much-deserved time off. We’re going to take next week off, too, for the Thanksgiving holiday. As always, you can email us your comments or questions or your suggestions for our medical misinformation segment. We are at whatthehealth@kff.org. Or you can still find me at X, @jrovner, or @julierovner at Bluesky and Threads. Alice?

Ollstein: @AliceOllstein on X, and at AliceMiranda on Bluesky.

Rovner: Rachel.

Cohrs: I’m @rachelcohrs on X and rchohrsreporter on Threads.

Rovner: Joanne.

Kenen: @JoanneKenen on X, and I’m increasingly switched to Threads at @joannekenen1.

Rovner: We will be back in your feed in two weeks. Until then, be healthy.

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The world is entering a new era of vaccines. Following the success of covid-19 mRNA shots, scientists have a far greater capacity to tailor shots to a virus’s structure, putting a host of new vaccines on the horizon.

The most recent arrivals — as anyone on the airwaves or social media knows — are several new immunizations against respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

These shots are welcome since RSV can be dangerous, even deadly, in the very old and very young. But the shots are also expensive — about $300 for those directed at adults, and up to $1,000 for one of the shots, a monoclonal antibody rather than a traditional vaccine, intended for babies. Many older vaccines cost pennies.

So their advent is forcing the United States to face anew questions it has long sidestepped: How much should an immunization that will possibly be given — maybe yearly — to millions of Americans cost to be truly valuable? Also, given the U.S. is one of two countries that permit direct advertising to consumers: How can we ensure the shots get into the arms of people who will truly benefit and not be given, at great expense, to those who will not?

Already, ads on televisions and social media show active retirees playing pickleball or going to art galleries whose lives are “cut short by RSV.” This explains the lines for the shot at my local pharmacy.

But indiscriminate use of expensive shots could strain both public and private insurers’ already tight budgets.

Other developed countries have deliberate strategies for deciding which vulnerable groups need a particular vaccine and how much to pay for it. The U.S. does not, and as specialized vaccines proliferate, public programs and private insurers will need to grapple with how to use and finance shots that can be hugely beneficial for some but will waste precious health dollars if taken by all.

A seasonal viral illness, RSV can cause hospitalization or, in rare cases, death in babies and in people age 75 or older, as well as those with serious underlying medical conditions such as heart disease or cancer. For most people who get RSV, it plays out as a cold; you’ve likely had RSV without knowing it.

But RSV puts about 2% of babies under age 1 in the hospital and kills between 100 and 300 of those under 6 months, because their immune systems are immature and their airways too narrow to tolerate the inflammation. Merely having a bad case of RSV in young childhood increases the risk of long-term asthma.

That’s why Barney Graham, the scientist who spent decades at the government’s National Institutes for Health perfecting the basic science that led to the current shots, said: “The most obvious use is in infants,” not adults.

That’s also why European countries trying to figure out how best to use these vaccines without breaking the bank focused first on babies and determining a sensible price. Though more of the very old may die of RSV, the years of life lost are much greater for the very young. (Babies can get the monoclonal antibody shot or gain protection through a traditional vaccine given to the mother near the end of pregnancy, conferring immunity through the womb.)

A consortium of European experts led by Philippe Beutels, a professor in health economics at the University of Antwerp in Belgium, calculated that the shots would only be “worth it” in terms of the lives saved and hospitalizations averted in infants if the price were under about $80, he said in a phone interview. That’s because almost all babies make it through RSV with supportive care.

The calculation will be used by countries such as Belgium, England, Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands to negotiate a set price for the two infant shots, followed by decisions on which version should be offered, depending partly on which is more affordable.

They have not yet considered how to distribute the vaccines to adults — considered less pressing — because studies show that RSV rarely causes severe disease in adults who live outside of care settings, such as a nursing home.

Why did the United States and Europe approach the problem from opposite directions?

In the U.S., there was a financial incentive: Roughly 3.7 million babies are born each year, while there are about 75 million Americans age 60 and older — the group for whom the two adult vaccines were approved. And about half of children get their vaccines through the Vaccines for Children program, which negotiates discounted prices.

Also, babies can get vaccinated only by their clinicians. Adults can walk into pharmacies for vaccinations, and pharmacies are only too happy to have the business.

But which older adults truly benefit from the shot? The two manufacturers of the adult vaccines, GSK and Pfizer, conducted their studies presented to the FDA for approval in a population of generally healthy people 60 and older, so that’s the group to whom they may be marketed. And marketed they are, even though the studies didn’t show the shots staved off hospitalization or death in people ages 60 to 75.

That led to what some have called a “narrow” endorsement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for people 60 to 75: Patients in that age range could get the shot after “shared clinical decision-making” with a health provider.

It is likely that because of this fuzzy recommendation, some Americans 60 and over with commercial insurance are finding that their insurers won’t cover it. Under Obamacare, insurers are generally required to cover at no cost vaccines that are recommended by the ACIP; however, if a provider recommends vaccination, then it must be covered by insurance.

(In late September, the ACIP recommended immunization of all babies with either the antibody or the maternal vaccine. Insurers have a year to commence coverage and many have been dragging their feet because of the high price.)

There are better and more equitable ways to steer the shots into the arms of those who need it, rather than simply administering it to those who have the “right” insurance or, swayed by advertising, can pay. For example, insurers, including Medicare, could be required to cover only those ages 60 to 75 who have a prescription from a doctor, indicating shared decision-making has occurred.

Finally, during the pandemic emergency, the federal government purchased all covid-19 vaccines in bulk at a negotiated price, initially below $20 a shot, and distributed them nationally. If, to protect public health, we want vaccines to get into the arms of all who benefit, that’s a more cohesive strategy than the patchwork one used now.

Vaccines are miraculous, and it’s great news that they now exist to prevent serious illness and death from RSV. But using such novel vaccines wisely — directing them to the people who need them at a price they can afford — will be key. Otherwise, the cost to the health system, and to patients, could undermine this big medical win.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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The Host

Julie Rovner
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Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of KFF Health News’ weekly health policy news podcast, “What the Health?” A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book “Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z,” now in its third edition.

Autumn is for pumpkins and raking leaves — and open enrollment for health plans. Medicare’s annual open enrollment began Oct. 1 and runs through Dec. 7. It will be followed shortly by the Affordable Care Act’s annual open enrollment, which starts Nov. 1 and runs until Jan. 15 in most states. But what used to be a fairly simple annual task — renewing an existing health plan or choosing a new one — has become a confusing, time-consuming mess for many, due to our convoluted health care system.

Meanwhile, Ohio will be the next state where voters will decide whether to protect abortion rights. Those on both sides of the debate are gearing up for the November vote, with anti-abortion forces hoping to break a losing streak of state ballot measures related to abortion since the 2022 overturn of Roe v. Wade.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of KFF Health News, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico, Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico, and Lauren Weber of The Washington Post.

Panelists

Joanne Kenen
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico

@JoanneKenen

Read Joanne's stories

Alice Miranda Ollstein
Politico

@AliceOllstein

Read Alice's stories

Lauren Weber
The Washington Post

@LaurenWeberHP

Read Lauren's stories

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

• The U.S. House of Representatives has been without an elected speaker since Oct. 4. That means lawmakers cannot conduct any legislative business, with several important health bills pending — including renewal of the popular international HIV/AIDS program, PEPFAR.
• Open enrollment is not just for people looking to change health insurance plans. Plans themselves change, and those who do nothing risk continuing in a plan that no longer meets their needs.
• A new round of lawsuits has sprung up related to “abortion reversals,” a controversial practice in which a patient, having taken the first dose of a two-dose abortion medication regimen, takes a high dose of the hormone progesterone rather than the second medication that completes the abortion. In Colorado, a Catholic-affiliated health clinic says a state law banning the practice violates its religious rights, while in California, the state attorney general is suing two faith-based chains that operate pregnancy “crisis centers,” alleging that by advertising the procedure they are making “fraudulent and misleading” claims.
• The latest survey of employer health insurance by KFF shows annual family premiums are again escalating rapidly — up an average of 7% from 2022 to 2023, with even larger increases expected for 2024. It’s not clear whether the already high cost of providing insurance to workers — an annual family policy now averages just under $24,000 — will dampen companies’ enthusiasm for providing the benefit.

Also this week, Rovner interviews KFF Health News’ Arielle Zionts, who reported and wrote the latest KFF Health News-NPR “Bill of the Month” feature about the wide cost variation of chemotherapy from state to state. If you have an outrageous or inscrutable medical you’d like to send us, you can do that here.

Plus, for “extra credit,” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: NPR’s “How Gas Utilities Used Tobacco Tactics to Avoid Gas Stove Regulations,” by Jeff Brady.

Lauren Weber: KFF Health News’ “Doctors Abandon a Diagnosis Used to Justify Police Custody Deaths. It Might Live On, Anyway,” by Markian Hawryluk and Renuka Rayasam.

Joanne Kenen: The Washington Post’s “How Lunchables Ended Up on School Lunch Trays,” by Lenny Bernstein, Lauren Weber, and Dan Keating.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: KFF Health News’ “Pregnant and Addicted: Homeless Women See Hope in Street Medicine,” by Angela Hart.

Also mentioned in this week’s episode:

• The Washington Post’s “The Post Spent the Past Year Examining U.S. Life Expectancy. Here’s What We Found,” by The Washington Post staff.
• The Washington Post’s “Primary Care Saves Lives. Here’s Why It’s Failing Americans,” by Frances Stead Sellers.
• Vox’s “Vox Launches New Guide to Open Enrollment,” by Vox Communications.
• Politico Magazine’s “How Dobbs Triggered a ‘Vasectomy Revolution,’” by Jesús A. Rodríguez.

Click to open the transcript

Transcript: The Open Enrollment Mixing Bowl

KFF Health News’ ‘What the Health?’Episode Title: The Open Enrollment Mixing BowlEpisode Number: 319Published: Oct. 19, 2023

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.]

Julie Rovner: Hello, and welcome back to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF Health News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Oct. 19, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. Today, we are joined via video conference by Alice Ollstein of Politico.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Good morning,

Rovner: Lauren Weber of The Washington Post.

Lauren Weber: Hello, hello.

Rovner: And Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico.

Joanne Kenen: Hi, everybody.

Rovner: Later in this episode, we’ll have my interview with Arielle Zionts, who reported and wrote the latest KFF Health News-NPR “Bill of the Month” about how chemotherapy can cost five times more in one state than in another. But first this week’s news. So, it’s Oct. 19, the House of Representatives is still without a speaker. That’s 2½ weeks now. That means legislation can’t move. Are there health care items that are starting to stack up? And what would it mean if the House ends up with an anti-federal government conservative like Rep. Jim Jordan, who, at least as of this moment, is not yet the speaker and does not yet look like he has the votes?

Ollstein: So in terms of unfinished health care business, the three big things we are tracking are things that actually lapsed at the end of September. Congress did manage to keep the government open, but they allowed three big health care things to fall by the wayside, and those are PEPFAR, the global HIV/AIDS program, the SUPPORT Act, the programs for opioids and addiction, and PAHPA, the public health, pandemics, biohazards big bill. And so those …

Rovner: I think one of those P’s stands for “preparedness,” right?

Ollstein: Exactly, yes. But it’s related to pandemics, and you would think after all we just went through that that would be more of a priority, but here we are. The reauthorization of all three of those is just dangling out there and it’s unclear if and when Congress can act on them. There is some level of bipartisan support for all of them, but that is what is stacking up, and nothing is really happening on those fronts, according to my conversations with sources on the Hill because everything has just ground to a halt because of the speaker mess.

Rovner: And, of course, we’re less than a month away from the current continuing resolution running out again, and we may go through — who knows? They may get a new speaker and then he may lose his job or her job once they try to keep the government open in November. It’s a mess. I’ve never seen anything like this …

Kenen: Also, in addition to those three very political … even public health and pandemics are now politics … that Alice correctly pointed out, these three huge ideological, how are we going to get them reauthorized in the next 30 days? But there’s also more routine things that are not controversial but are caught up in this such as community health center funding, which has bipartisan support, but they need their apropos and all that stuff. So in addition to these sort of red-blue fights, there’s just, how do we keep the doors open for people who need access to health care? That’s not the only program. There are many day-to-day programs that like everything else in the government are up in the air.

Rovner: I mean, we should point out this is unprecedented. The only other time the House has been without a speaker this long was one year when they didn’t come in at the beginning of the Congress until later in January. It’s literally the only time. There’s never been a mid-session speakerless House. So everything that happens from here is unprecedented. Well, meanwhile, if you have turned on a TV in the past week, you already know this, but Medicare open enrollment began last Sunday, Oct. 15. To be clear, when you first become eligible for Medicare, you can sign up anytime in the three months before or after your birthday. But if you enroll in a private Medicare Advantage plan or a private prescription drug plan, and most people are in one or the other or both, open enrollment is when you can add or change coverage. This used to be pretty straightforward, but it’s only gotten more confusing as private plans have proliferated. This year the Biden administration is trying to fight back against some of the misleading marketing efforts. Politico reports that the government has rejected some 300 different ads. Is that enough to quell the confusion? I’m already seeing ads and kind of look at it, like, “I don’t think that says what it means to say.”

Weber: Yeah, we see this every year. It’s a ton of ads. It’s a barrage of ads that all say, “Hey, this plan is going to get you X, Y, Z, and that’s better than traditional Medicare.” But you got to read the fine print, and I think that is the big thing for all the folks that are looking at this every time. Open enrollment is very confusing, and a lot of times people are trying to sell you things that are not what they appear. So it does appear that there has been more movement to crack down on those ads. But look, the family members I talked to are still confused, so I don’t know how much that’s proliferating down quite yet.

Kenen: And even if the ads were honest, our health system is so confusing. Even if you’re at an employer health system. All of us are employed, all of us get insurance at work, and none of us really know we have made the best choice. I mean, you need a crystal ball to know what illness you and your relatives are going to get that year, and what the copays and deductibles for that specific condition. I’ve never been sure. I have three choices. They’re all decent, whether it’s the best for me and my family, with all that I know about health care, I still don’t know I made the best choice ’cause I don’t have a crystal ball or not one that works.

Rovner: Right. I also have choices, and I did my mom’s Medicare for years, as Joanne remembers …

Kenen: You did a great piece on that one.

Rovner: … this is the way I remember it. I did do a piece on that. Long time ago, when they were first starting the prescription drug benefit and you had to sort of sign up via a computer, and in 2006, not that many seniors knew how to use computers. At least we’re sort of over that, but there’s still complaints about the official website Medicare.gov, which does a pretty good job. It’s just got an awful lot of steps. It’s one of those things, it’s like, “OK, set aside two hours,” and that’s if you know what you’re doing to do this. So meanwhile, if this isn’t all confusing enough, open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act opens in two weeks, and while Medicare open enrollment ends Dec. 7, ACA enrollment goes through Jan. 15 in most, but not every, state. In both cases, if you get your insurance through Medicare or through the ACA, you should look to see what changes your plan might be making. I should say also, if it’s open enrollment for your employer insurance, plans make changes pretty much every year. So you may end up, even if you’re in the same plan, with a plan that you don’t like or a plan that you don’t like as much as you like it now. This is insanely complicated, as you point out, for everybody with insurance. Is there any way to make it easier?

Kenen: There’s no politically palatable way to make it easier. And then things they’ve done to try to make it easier, like consistent claims forms, which most of us don’t have to fill out anymore. Most of that’s done online, but they’re not using consistent claim forms and there’s nothing simple and there’s nothing that’s getting simpler. And we’re all savvy …

Rovner: It’s what keeps our “Bill of the Month” project in business.

Kenen: Right. We’re all pretty savvy and none of us are smart enough to solve every health care problem of us and our family.

Rovner: It’s one of those things where compromise actually makes for complexity. When policymakers can’t do something they really want to do, they do something smaller and more incremental. And so what you end up with is this built on, in every which way, kind of health care system that nobody knows how it works.

Kenen: Like the year I hurt both a finger and a toe. And I had a deductible for the finger, but not for the toe. Explain that!

Rovner: I assume it was in and out of network or not even.

Kenen: No. They were both in network. All of my digits are in network.

Weber: I just got a covid test bill from 2020 that I had previously knocked down by calling, but they rebilled me again. And because I am a savvy health care reporter, I was like, “I’m not paying this. I know that I don’t have to pay this.” But it took probably 10 hours to resolve, I mean, and that’s not even picking insurance. So I’m just saying it’s an incredibly complex marketplace. Shout-out to Vox who had a really nice series that tried to make it easier for people to understand the differences between Medicare and Medicare Advantage, open enrollment, what that all means. If you haven’t seen that and you’re confused about your insurance options, I would highly recommend it.

Rovner: And I will link to the Vox series, which is really good, but it was kind of looking at it. I mean, they had to write six different stories. It’s like that’s how confusing things are, which is really kind of sad here, but we will move on because we’re not going to solve this one today. So speaking of things that are complicated and getting more so, let’s turn to reproductive health. Alice, the big event that people on both sides are waiting for — one of those events, at least — is a ballot measure in Ohio that would establish a state constitutional right to abortion. So far, every state ballot measure we’ve seen has gone in favor of the abortions rights side. How are abortion opponents trying to flip the script here?

Ollstein: So I was in Ohio a couple of weeks ago and was really focused on that very question, just what are they doing differently? How are they learning lessons from all of the losses last year? And why do they think Ohio will be any different? I will say, since my piece came out, there was the first poll I’ve seen of how people are approaching the November referendum, and it showed overwhelming support for the abortion rights side, just like in every other state. So have that color, what I’m about to say next, which is that the anti-abortion side thinks they can win because they have a lot of structural factors working in their favor. They have the governor of Ohio really actively campaigning against the amendment. So that’s in contrast to [Gov. Gretchen] Whitmer in Michigan last year, campaigning actively for it. When you have a fairly popular governor, that does have an impact, they’re a known trusted voice to many. Also …

Rovner: And the governor of Ohio is also a former senator and I mean a really well-known guy.

Ollstein: Yeah. Yeah, exactly. You just have the entire state structure working to defeat this amendment. They tried in a special election in August to change the rules. That didn’t work. Now, you just have all of these top officials using their bully pulpit and their platforms to try to steer the vote in the anti-abortion direction. Also, the actual campaign itself is trying to learn lessons from last year and doing a few things differently. They’re going really aggressively after the African American vote, particularly through Black churches. And so that’s not something I saw in the states I reported on last year, and they’re really aggressively going after the student vote. And I went to a student campus event at Ohio State that the anti-abortion side was holding, and it seemed pretty effective. There was a ton of confusion among the students. A lot of the students are like, “Wait, didn’t we just vote on this?” referring to the August special. They said, “Wait a minute, which side means yes, and which side means no?” There was just rampant confusion, and it wasn’t helped … I observed the anti-abortion side, telling people some misleading things about what the amendment would and wouldn’t do. And so all of that could definitely have an impact. But like I said, since my story came out, a poll came out showing really strong support for the abortion rights amendment, which would block the state’s six-week ban, which is now held up in court, but the court leans pretty far to the right. This would block that from going back into effect potentially.

Rovner: Ohio, the ultimate swing state, probably the reddest swing state in the country. But Ohio is not the only state having an off-year election next month. Virginia doesn’t have an abortion measure on the ballot, but its entire state House and Senate are up for reelection. And from almost every ad I’ve seen from Democrats, it mentions abortion, and there’s a lot of ads here in the Washington, D.C., area for some of the Virginia elections. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who’s not on the ballot this year, thinks he has a way of talking about abortion that might give his side the edge. What are we going to be able to tell from the ultimate makeup of the very narrowly divided Virginia Legislature when this is all said and done?

Kenen: It won’t be veto-proof. Unlike North Carolina now, even if it’s the Democrats hold the one chamber they have or win both of them, and it’s really close. These are very closely divided, so we really don’t know how it’s going to turn out. But I mean he …

Rovner: One year it was so close that they literally had to draw rocks out of a bowl.

Kenen: Yeah, right. There’s highly unlikely that there will be a scenario where there’s a really strongly Democratic legislature with a Republican governor. That’s not likely. What’s likely is a very narrowly divided, and we don’t know who has the edge in which chamber. So the governor can’t just do things unilaterally, but how it plays out. And Youngkin’s backing a 15-week ban with some exceptions after that for life and health. A year ago, that would’ve seemed like an extreme measure. And now it seems moderate, I mean compared to zero weeks and no exceptions. So Virginia’s a red state, it’s swung blue. It’s now reddish again, I mean, it’s not a swing state so much in presidential, but on the ground, it’s a swing state. And …

Rovner: But I guess that’s what I was getting at was Youngkin’s trying to sort of paint his support as something moderate …

Kenen: That’s how he’s been trying to thread this needle ’cause he comes across as moderate and then he comes across as more conservative. And on abortion, what’s moderate now? I mean, in the current landscape among Republican governors, you could say his is moderate, but Alice follows the politics more closely, but half the country doesn’t think that’s moderate.

Rovner: If the Democrats retain or win both houses of the legislature, I mean, will that send us a message about abortion or is that just going to send us a message about Virginia being a very narrowly divided state?

Ollstein: I think both. I think Joanne is right in that the polling and the voting record over the last year reflect that a lot of people are not buying the idea that 15 weeks is moderate. And a lot of polls show that when presented the choice between a total ban and total protections, even people who are uncomfortable with the idea of abortions later in pregnancy opt for total protections. And so you’ve seen that play out. At the same time, there’s a lot of people on the right who correctly argue that the vast majority of abortions happen before 15 weeks, and so 15 weeks is not going far enough. And they’re not in favor of that as so-called compromise or moderate policy. And so …

Rovner: There are no compromises in abortion.

Ollstein: Truly, truly.

Rovner: If we’ve learned anything, we’ve learned that.

Ollstein: And when you try to please everyone, sometimes you please no one, as we’ve seen with both candidates and policies that try to thread this needle. And so I think it will be a really interesting test because yes, right now the legislature is sort of the firewall between what the governor wants to do on abortion, and whether that will continue to be true is a really interesting question.

Rovner: Meanwhile, we have dueling abortion reversal lawsuits going on in both Colorado and California. Abortion reversal, for those who don’t follow all the jargon, is the concept of interrupting the two-medication regime for abortion by pill. And instead of taking the second medication, the pregnant person takes large doses of the hormone progesterone. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says there is no evidence that this works to reverse a medication abortion and that it’s unethical for doctors to prescribe it. But in Colorado, a Christian health clinic is charging that a state law that bans the practice offering abortion reversal violates their freedom of religion. In California, it’s actually the opposite. The state attorney general is suing a pregnancy crisis center for false advertising, promoting the practice. Alice, how big a deal could this fight over abortion reversal become? And that’s assuming that the pill remains widely available, which is going to be decided by yet another lawsuit.

Ollstein: Yeah, absolutely. Although it’ll be a long time before we know whether mifepristone is legally available on a federal basis. But I’ve been watching this bubble up for years, but it’s up till now been more of a rhetorical fight in terms of: “Abortion reversal is a thing.” “No, it’s not.” “Yes, it is.” “No, it’s not.” “Here’s my expert saying it is.” “Here’s my expert saying it’s not.” But this is really moving it into a more sort of concrete, legal realm, and not just rhetoric. And so it is an escalation, and it will be interesting to see. Mainstream health care organizations do not support this practice. There was a clinical trial of it going on that was actually called off because of the potential dangers involved and risks to participants …

Rovner: Of doing the abortion reversal method …

Ollstein: Exactly. Yes.

Rovner: … of trying to interrupt a medication abortion.

Ollstein: Yes. This is really on the cutting edge of where medicine and politics are clashing right now.

Rovner: Yeah, we’ll see how it, and, of course, if they end up in different places, this could be something else that ends up in front of the Supreme Court. And this is, I think, less of an argument about religious freedom than an argument about the ability of medical organizations to determine what is or isn’t standard of practice based on evidence. I mean, I guess in some ways it becomes the same thing as the broader mifepristone case, where it’s like, do you trust the FDA to determine what’s safe? And now, it’s like, do you trust ACOG and the AMA [American Medical Association] and other organizations of doctors to decide what should be allowed?

Kenen: I mean, progesterone has medical purposes, it’s used to prevent miscarriages, but it’s off-label. It goes into these other questions, which all of us have written about — ivermectin, and who gets legal substances, and how do you use them properly, and what’s the danger? And there’s a bunch of them.

Weber: I think the fight over standard of care has really become the next frontier in medical lawsuits. I mean, we’ve all written about this, but ivermectin, obviously, misinformation, prescribing hydroxychloroquine, all of these things are now getting into the legal field. Is that the standard of care? What is the standard of care and how does that play out? So I agree with you. I think this is going to end up by the Supreme Court and I think it has much broader implications than just for mifepristone and abortion drugs too.

Rovner: Yeah, I do too. Well, finally, in an update I did not have on my post-Roe Bingo card, it appears that vasectomies are up in some states, including Oregon, where abortion is still legal, and Oklahoma, where it’s not very widely available. Are men finally taking more responsibility for not getting the women they have sex with pregnant? That would be a big sea change.

Ollstein: Yeah, we’ve been hearing anecdotally that this has been the case definitely since Dobbs and even before that as abortion restrictions were mounting. Politico Magazine did a nice piece on this last year profiling vasectomy [in] a mobile van. And it’s also just fascinating and a lot of people have been highlighting just how few restrictions on vasectomies there are compared to more permanent sterilization for women: no waiting periods, no fighting about it. And so it does provide an interesting contrast there.

Rovner: I know there have been stories over the years about how the demand for vasectomies goes up right before the NCAA tournament in March and April because men figure that they can just recuperate while watching basketball.

Ollstein: I thought that was a myth then I looked it up and it’s absolutely true.

Rovner: It is absolutely true.

Kenen: I mean, it also seems to be more common among older men who’ve had a family and because it’s permanent, I mean usually permanent. It’s usually permanent and right, it’s one thing to decide after a certain point in your life when you’ve already had your kids. I mean, it’s not going to be an option for younger men who haven’t had children.

Rovner: It’s also reliable, it is one of those things that you don’t have to worry about.

Kenen: Even though I looked up the figures once, it’s a very, very low failure rate, but it’s not zero.

Rovner: True. We are moving on to what I call this week in declining life expectancy. I’m glad that Lauren is back with us because The Washington Post has published the next pieces of its deep dive into the U.S. population’s declining life expectancy. And we’re going to start with a story that was co-written by Lauren, but that is Joanne’s extra credit this week. So Joanne, you start, and then Lauren, you can chime in.

Kenen: OK. It’s “How Lunchables Ended Up on School Lunch Trays.” For those of you who have never been in a supermarket or who have closed your eyes in certain aisles, Lunchables are heavily processed, encased in plastic, small lunchboxes of a — it’s not even much of a meal or small — which you can buy in the supermarket. And now two of them have been modified so that they’re allowed in schools as healthy enough …

Rovner: They’re quote, unquote, “balanced” because it’s a little piece of meat and a little piece of cheese.

Kenen: They have so far just a turkey cheese option that qualifies for schools and a pizza that qualifies for schools. Not a whole pizza, a little … but the kid in the story, the second grader in the story, didn’t even know it was turkey. It has 14 ingredients. He thought it was ham. So I mean, that just sort of says it, but it’s beyond the lack of nutrition, it started out sort of like what is this child putting in his mouth and why is it called school lunch? But the story was deeper because it was a very long investigation by Lauren and Dan Keating on the relationship between the food industry, the trade group, and the government regulation. And just say, it leaves a lot to be desired. And you should all read the story only because you can click on the story of the oversized Cheez-It.

I mean, it’s a fake one, but the replica of this as big as the planet Mars. I mean, it’s just this huge Cheez-It. And it’s a really good story because it’s overprocessed food is really bad for us. And I mean, scientists have matched the rise of this overprocessed stuff that began as food and the rise of obesity in America. And it’s not just taking the salt out of it, which they’re doing, the sodium out of or adding a little calcium or something to these processed foods. They’re ultra-processed foods, and that’s not what our body needs.

Rovner: So, Lauren, I mean, how does this relate to the rest of this declining life expectancy project and what else is there to come?

Weber: This is our big tranche of stories. I mean, we should have some follows, but that’s it. And well, Joanne, thank you for the kind words on it. We really appreciate that. But I mean, I think the point that she made that I want to highlight for this in general is what was wild in investigating this story is pizza sauce is a vegetable in the U.S. when it comes to school lunch and french fries are also a vegetable. And that’s really all you need to sum up how the industry influence in Congress has resulted in what kids are having for their school lunch today. One of the things we got to do for the story is go to the national School Nutrition Association conference, which is where we saw the giant Cheez-It. And it’s this massive trade fair of all these companies where they throw parties for the school nutrition personnel to try all the different food. And it’s wild to see in real life. And what Joanne made a good point of about ultra-processed food and what the rules do right now is they don’t consider the integrity of the food. They set limits on calories and sodium, but they don’t consider what kids are actually eating. And so you end up with these ultra-processed foods that growing body of research suggests really have some negative health consequences for you. And so, as Joanne talked about, and as our series gets into, obesity is a real problem in this country, and obesity has huge, long-lasting, life-shortening impacts. One of the folks we talked to for the piece, Michael Moss, said, he worries that processed food is the new tobacco because he feels like smoking’s going down, but obesity’s going up. And something he said to me that didn’t make the piece, but I thought was really interesting is that at some point he thinks there’ll be some sort of class-action lawsuit against ultra-processed food, much like a cigarette lawsuit-

Rovner: Like with tobacco.

Weber: Like a tobacco lawsuit, like an opioid lawsuit. I think that’s kind of interesting to think about, but this was just one of the many life expectancy stories. I want to shout out my colleague Frances Stead Sellers’ story, which talked about how it compared is brilliant. It compared two sisters with rheumatoid arthritis, one who lives in the U.S. and one who lives in Portugal. They’re both from Portugal. The one in Portugal has all this fabulous primary health care. The doctors even call her on Christmas and they’re like, “We’re worried you’re going to have chocolate cherries with brandy that would interact with your medicine.” Whereas the one in the U.S. has to go to the ER all the time because she doesn’t have steady health care and she can’t seem to make it work, ends meet. She doesn’t have a primary health care system. She’s a disjointed doctor system. And the end of the story is the sister in the U.S. who has this severe health problem is moving to Portugal because it’s just so much better there for primary care. And I think that gets at a lot of what our stories on life expectancy have talked about, which is that primary care, preventative care in the U.S. is not a priority and it results in a lot of downstream consequences that are shortening America’s life expectancy.

Rovner: Well, I hope when this project is all published that you put all the stories together and send them to every school of public health in the United States. That would be fairly useful. I bet public health professors would appreciate it.

Weber: Thank you.

Rovner: So it is mid-October, that means it is time for the annual KFF survey of employer health insurance. And for the first time since the pandemic, most premiums are up markedly, an average of 7% from 2022 to 2023 with indications of even larger increases coming for 2024. Now, to people like me and Joanne, who’ve been doing this for a long time, lived through years of double-digit increases in the early 2000s, 7% doesn’t seem that big, but today, the average family health insurance premium is about the same as the cost of a small car. So is there a breaking point for the employer health system? I mean, one of the things — to go back to what we were talking about at the beginning — one of the compromised ways we’ve kept the system functional is by allowing these pieces to remain in pieces. Employers have wanted to offer health insurance. It’s an important fringe benefit to help attract workers. But you’re paying $25,000 a year for a family plan, unless you’re a really big company. And even if you are a really big company, that’s an awful lot of money.

Kenen: One of the things that struck me is, we’re at a point when we’ve had a lot of strikes and reactivated labor movement, but 20 years ago, the fights were about the cost of health care. The famous Verizon strike. They were big strikes that were about health care, the cost. And right now, I’m not really hearing that too much. I’m sure it’s part of the conversation, but it’s not the top. It’s not the headline of what these strikes are about. They’re about salaries mostly and working conditions with nurses and ratios and things like that. I’m not hearing health care costs, but I sort of think we will because, yes, we are being subsidized by our employers, most of us. But you said, “What’s the breaking point?” Well, apparently there isn’t one. We’ve asked ourselves that every single year. And when do we stop doing it? No one has a good answer for that. And related is to what Lauren was just talking about, life expectancy. The lack of primary care in this country, in addition to improving our health, it would probably bring down cost. We used to spend 6 cents on the dollar on primary care, 6 cents. Other countries spend a lot more. Now, we’re down to 4.5 cents. So the stuff that keeps you well and spots problems and has somebody who recognizes when something’s going wrong in you because you’re their patient as opposed to … there’s nothing. I don’t mean that urgent care doesn’t have a place. It does, but it’s not the same thing as somebody who gives you continuity of care. So these are all related. I’ll stop. It’s a mess. Someone else can say it’s a mess now.

Rovner: It’s definitely a mess and we are not going to fix it today, but we’ll keep trying.

Kenen: Maybe next week.

Rovner: All right. Yeah, maybe next week. That is this week’s news. Now, we will play my “Bill of the Month” interview with Arielle Zionts. And then we will come back and do our extra credits.

I am pleased to welcome to the podcast my KFF Health News colleague Arielle Zionts who reported and wrote the latest KFF Health News-NPR “Bill of the Month” installment. Arielle, welcome to the podcast.

Arielle Zionts: Thanks for having me.

Rovner: So this month’s patient is grappling with a grave cancer diagnosis, a toddler, and some inexplicable bills from hospitals in two different states. Tell us a little bit about her.

Zionts: Sure. So Emily Gebel is from Alaska and has a husband and two young kids. She home-schools them. She really likes the outdoors, reading, foraging, and she was diagnosed with breast cancer. Just something that makes me so sad is she found out when she was basically breastfeeding because she felt a lump. And then when she was diagnosed, her baby was asleep in her arms when she got that call. So it just really shows what it’s like to be a mom and to have cancer. She was living in Juneau at the time. Her friends who’ve had cancer suggested [they] wanted to go to a bigger city. Whether it’s true or not, the idea was, OK, bigger cities are going to have bigger care. Juneau is not a big city, and you cannot drive there. You have to take a ferry or you have to fly in, and this is the capital of Alaska. So that might …

Rovner: Yes, I’ve been there. It’s very picturesque and very small and very hard to get to.

Zionts: Yeah, so that might be surprising for some people. The closest major American city is Seattle. So she went there for her surgery and then she decided to have chemo, and she opted for this special type of chemo that uses lower dose, but more frequent doses. The idea is that it creates less of the side effects, and she went to this standalone clinic in Seattle, flying there every week. It’s not a quick flight. It can take up to two hours and 45 minutes. And that just got really tiring. I mean, physically …

Rovner: And she’s got kids at home.

Zionts: Yes, physically and mentally and just taking up time. So she decided to switch to the local hospital in Juneau. So they had bills from the first clinic in Seattle, and then they got some estimates from the one in Juneau and then finally got a bill from there as well.

Rovner: Yes, as we say, “Then the bill came.” And, boy, there was a big difference between the same chemotherapy in Seattle and in Juneau, Alaska, right?

Zionts: I compared two of Emily’s treatments that used a similar mix of drugs and also had overlapping non-drug charges, such as how much it costs for the first hour of treatment, subsequent hours. And in the Seattle clinic, one round cost about $1,600. And then in Juneau it cost more than $5,000, so more than three times higher. And we were able to look at specific charges. So that first hour of chemo was $1,000 in Juneau, which is more than twice the rate in the Seattle clinic. There was a drug that cost more than three times the price at the clinic. And then even the cheaper charges were more expensive. So the hospital charged $19.15 for Benadryl, which is about 22 times the price at the clinic, which was 87 cents.

Rovner: Now to be clear, the Gebel family seems to have pretty comprehensive insurance. So this case wasn’t as much about their out-of-pocket costs as some of the other Bills of the Month that we’ve covered, but they did want to know why there was such a big difference, and what did they, and we find out?

Zionts: Yeah. So we started the story for NPR, we basically started saying, “Hey, this is a little different than the other ones because the family has met their maximum out-of-pocket.”

Rovner: For the year?

Zionts: Yes. Once you pay a certain amount of money for the year, your insurance will cover everything, and that can be a high number. But if you have cancer, cancer’s expensive, so you will probably hit it at some point. By the time she switched her treatment to Juneau, she had met that, so she wouldn’t actually owe anything.

Rovner: But what did they find out nevertheless, about why it costs that much more in Juneau than it did in Seattle?

Zionts: Yes. So Jered, her husband, he is somewhat of a self-taught medical billing expert. He gained this knowledge by listening to “Bill of the Month” and then reading some books about this. I mean, at first, he thought maybe they would owe money, but then he learned they wouldn’t. But he still didn’t think it was fair. I mean, he didn’t think it was fair for the insurance companies. And he did catch two errors. One of them, an estimate, was wrong. The hospital said, “Oh, it looks like there was a computer error,” and that was lowered. And then when it came for the actual bill, there was a coding error. It made one of the drugs not covered when it should have been. So that would’ve actually left them out-of-pocket costs. So he was able to lower an estimate, lower the bill. But again, even with those changes, it was still so much more expensive. And that’s when I called some experts and someone’s gut reaction or initial hypothesis might be, “Well, of course, it’s more expensive in Alaska. Alaska is small, it’s remote. I mean, it’s just going to cost more to ship things there. You need to pay doctors more to entice them to live there.”

Rovner: And it costs more for doctors to live there anyway, right?

Zionts: Yes.

Rovner: The cost of living is high in Alaska.

Zionts: Yes. The expert I spoke with, an economist who has studied this issue. He said, “Yes, that is part of it.” Like you said, everything is more expensive in Alaska, but even when accounting for that, the prices are even higher. So the growth of cost in the health care sector in Alaska is higher than the growth of overall cost. And he listed some policies or trends that might explain that. There’s one that really stood out, which is something called the “80th percentile rule,” but it was meant to contain cost for when you’re seen by out-of-network providers. And it seems that it may have actually backfired, and the state is considering repealing that. But as Elisabeth Rosenthal, one of our editors at KFF Health News, and she’s written an entire book about this, as she said, “This is how our health system works. There’s no law saying, this is how much you can upcharge for some intrinsic value of a medicine or of a service. So hospitals can do what they want.” So …

Rovner: And we should point out, I mean, this is not a for-profit hospital, right? It’s owned by the city.

Zionts: Yes. This is a nonprofit hospital owned by the city, and they don’t get a ton of money from the city or state, which is interesting though. So they’re really getting their funding from the services they provide. And the hospital said they try to make it fair by comparing it to wholesale costs, what other hospitals in the region are charging. But they also said, “Yes, we do need to account for the higher costs.”

Rovner: So what’s the takeaway here? I mean, basically what it costs is going to depend on where you live?

Zionts: Basically, what we’ve learned from all these Bill of the Months is that it’s going to vary depending on what facility you go to. And that could be within one city, the prices could vary. And then you might see some more variation between states and especially in states where the cost of living is higher or it’s more remote.

Rovner: Of which Alaska is both.

Zionts: Yes. And actually, something to add is that the amount of money that this hospital has to spend to fly in doctors and nurses and also just staff, even nonmedical staff, they spent nearly $11 million last year to transport them and pay them because they don’t have enough local people. And the other takeaway, though, is that yes, this can be explained, but also, it’s unexplainable in the sense that our health care system doesn’t have some magic formula or some hard rules about what is, quote, “fair.”

Rovner: Yes, at least when it comes to Medicare, Congress has been trying to do that for, oh, I don’t know, about 50 years now. Still working on it. Arielle Zionts, thank you very much for joining us.

Zionts: Thank you for having me.

Rovner: OK. We are back, and it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s when we each recommend a story we read this week we think you should read, too. As always, don’t worry if you miss it. We will post the links on the podcast page at kffhealthnews.org and in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Joanne, you’ve already done yours. Alice, why don’t you go next?

Ollstein: I did a piece by my former colleague Angela Hart for KFF Health News, and it’s about street medicine. So teams of doctors working with unhoused people, and this is profiling mainly in Northern California, but it’s sort of discussing this across the country. And in addition to the really very moving personal stories that she found in her reporting, she also talked about some of the structural stuff that is supporting the expansion of this kind of health care. And so California was already putting a lot of money into health care services for the homeless, but in hospitals and in clinics, they were finding that people just aren’t able to come in. Whether it’s because they don’t want to leave all of their earthly possessions unguarded or because they can’t get the transportation or whatever. And so that money’s now being redirected into having the doctors go to them, which seems to be successful in some ways, but the depth of health care problems is just so deep. And …

Rovner: But also, really the importance of primary care.

Ollstein: Absolutely. And so what they’re finding is just a lot of pregnancies and problems with pregnancy in the homeless population. And so they’re doing more services around that and more offering contraception and prenatal care for the people who are already pregnant. It’s very sad, but somewhat hopeful. And the other more structural thing is changing rules so that doctors can get reimbursed at a decent rate for providing street medicine as opposed to in brick-and-mortar facilities.

Rovner: Thanks. Lauren?

Weber: So I also have a KFF special from my former colleagues, Markian [Hawryluk] and Renu [Rayasam]. It’s just a great piece. It’s called “Doctors Abandon a Diagnosis Used to Justify Police Custody Deaths. It Might Live On, Anyway.” So what the piece does is it interviews the doctor who helped debunk what excited delirium is for his medical organization, but it reveals that that may not help in terms of court cases that have already been decided and in terms of science in general. And I think it’s so fascinating because what this piece does is it gets at what happens when flawed science then is used for lawsuits and consequential things for many, many years to come. I think we’ve seen a lot of stories this year about flawed science and what the actual ramifications are after, and this is clearly horrible ramifications here. And it’s just kind of a fascinating question of how does that ever get made right and how do things slowly or ever go back to what they should be after flawed science is revealed? So really, really great work from the team.

Rovner: Yeah, it’s really good piece. Well, keeping with the theme of choosing stories by our former colleagues. Mine is from a former colleague at NPR, Jeff Brady, and it’s “How Gas Utilities Used Tobacco Tactics to Avoid Gas Stove Regulations.” And if you don’t know what that refers to, I have a book or several for you about the huge sums of money that the tobacco industry paid over many decades to have captive, scientific, quote-unquote, “experts” counterclaims that smoking is bad for your health. It turns out that the gas stove industry likewise knew that gas stoves were worse for your health than electric ones, and that those vent hoods don’t really take care of all the problems of the things that gas stoves emit. And that it also paid for studies intended to muddy the waters and confuse both customers and regulators. It’s a pretty damning story, and I say that as someone who is very much attached to my gas stove but am now having second thoughts.

OK, that is our show for this week. As always, if you enjoy the podcast, you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We’d appreciate it if you left us a review; that helps other people find us too. Special thanks as always to our amazing and patient engineer, Francis Ying. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org, or you can still find me holding down the fort at X, I’m @jrovner or @julierovner at Bluesky and Threads. Joanne, where are you these days?

Kenen: I’m more on Threads, @joannekenen1. I still have a Twitter account, @JoanneKenen, where I’m not very active.

Rovner: Alice?

Ollstein: I am @AliceOllstein on X and @alicemiranda on Bluesky.

Rovner: Lauren?

Weber: I’m @LaurenWeberHP on X, the HP stands for health policy, as I like to tell people.

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy.

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Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of KFF Health News’ weekly health policy news podcast, “What the Health?” A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book “Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z,” now in its third edition.

Congress returns from its August recess with a long list of things to do and not a lot of time to do them. The fiscal year ends Sept. 30, and it’s possible that lawmakers will fail to finish work not only on the annual appropriations bills, but also on any short-term spending bill to keep the government open.

Meanwhile, Medicare has announced the first 10 drugs whose prices will be negotiated under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Exactly how the program will work remains a question, however. Even how the process will begin is uncertain, as drugmakers and other groups have filed lawsuits to stop it.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of KFF Health News, Rachel Cohrs of Stat, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico, and Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Panelists

Rachel Cohrs
Stat News

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Joanne Kenen
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico

@JoanneKenen

Read Joanne's stories

Alice Miranda Ollstein
Politico

@AliceOllstein

Read Alice's stories

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

• Hard-line Republicans are refusing to back even a temporary government spending bill, suggesting a government shutdown looms — with repercussions for health programs. While the Senate and House have come to intra-chamber agreements on subjects like community health center funding or even have passed spending bills, Congress as a whole has been unable to broker an overarching deal.
• A coalition of House Republicans is falsely claiming that global HIV/AIDS funding through PEPFAR promotes abortion and is battling efforts to extend the program’s funding. PEPFAR is a bipartisan effort spearheaded by then-President George W. Bush and credited with saving millions of lives.
• The PEPFAR fight underscores the dysfunction of the current Congress, which is struggling to fund even a highly regarded, lifesaving program. Another example is the months-long blockade of military promotions by a freshman Republican senator, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. His objections over an abortion-related Pentagon policy have placed him at odds with top military leaders, who recently warned that his heavy-handed approach is weakening military readiness.
• The Biden administration recently announced new staffing requirements for nursing homes, as a way to get more nurses into such facilities. But how long will compliance take, considering ongoing nursing shortages? And the drug industry is reacting to the news of which 10 drugs will be up first for Medicare negotiation, with much left to be sorted out.
• In abortion news, a Texas effort to block patients seeking abortions from using the state’s roads is spreading town to town — and, despite being dubiously enforceable, it could still have a chilling effect.

Also this week, Rovner interviews Meena Seshamani, who leads the federal Medicare program, about the plan to start negotiating drug prices.

Plus, for “extra credit,” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: JAMA Health Forum’s “Health Systems and Social Services — A Bridge Too Far?” by Sherry Glied and Thomas D’Aunno.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: The Washington Post’s “Heat’s Hidden Risk,” by Shannon Osaka, Erin Patrick O’Connor, and John Muyskens.

Rachel Cohrs: The Wall Street Journal’s “How Novartis’s CEO Learned From His Mistakes and Got Help From an Unlikely Quarter,” by Jared S. Hopkins.

Joanne Kenen: Politico’s “How to Wage War on Conspiracy Theories,” by Joanne Kenen, and “Court Revives Doctors’ Lawsuit Saying FDA Overstepped Its Authority With Anti-Ivermectin Campaign,” by Kevin McGill.

Also mentioned in this week’s episode:

• The Washington Post’s “Highways Are the Next Antiabortion Target. One Texas Town Is Resisting,” by Caroline Kitchener.
• KFF Health News’ “Biden Administration Proposes New Standards to Boost Nursing Home Staffing,” by Jordan Rau.
• Stat’s “The Curious Case of J&J’s Stelara, The Unluckiest Drug on Medicare’s List,” by Rachel Cohrs.

Click to open the transcript

Transcript: Welcome Back, Congress. Now Get to Work.

[Editor’s note: This transcript, generated using transcription software, has been edited for style and clarity.]

Julie Rovner: Hello and welcome back to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF Health News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Sept. 7, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. We are joined today via video conference by Rachel Cohrs of Stat News.

Rachel Cohrs: Good morning.

Rovner: Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico.

Joanne Kenen: Hi, everybody.

Rovner: And Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Hello.

Rovner: Later in this episode, we’ll have an interview with Meena Seshamani, who runs the Medicare program for the federal government, with an update on the Medicare drug negotiation debate as, we’ll discuss, the first 10 drugs that will be subject to negotiation were announced last week. But first, this week’s news. So Labor Day is behind us, and Congress is back — sort of. The Senate is back. The House returns next week. And there are lots of questions to be answered this fall, starting with whether or not Congress can finish the annual spending bills before the start of fiscal 2024 on Oct. 1. Spoiler: They cannot. But there’s also a real question whether Congress can even pass a short-term bill to keep the government running while lawmakers continue to work on the rest of the appropriations. As of now, what do you guys think are the odds that we’re going to end up with some kind of government shutdown at the end of the month?

Ollstein: Well, it’s whether it happens at the end of the month or at the end of the year, really. Folks seem pretty convinced that it will happen at some point. It could be short-lived. But, yeah, like you said, you have some hard-line House Republicans who say they won’t support even a temporary stopgap bill without spending cuts, policy changes, without sort of extracting some of their demands from leadership. And you could work around that in the House by cobbling together a coalition of Republicans and Democrats. But that also puts [House Speaker Kevin] McCarthy’s leadership in jeopardy. And so, we’re having sort of the same dynamic play out that we saw earlier this year, trying to navigate between the hard-line House Republicans and, you know, the more vulnerable swing districts’ members. So it’s … tough.

Rovner: Yeah, it’s the Republicans from districts that [President Joe] Biden won … basically.

Ollstein: Yeah. And so you have this weird game of chicken right now where both the House and Senate are trying to pass whatever they can to give themselves more leverage in the ultimate House-Senate negotiations. They think, OK, if we pass five bills and they only pass one, you know, then we have the upper hand. So we’ll see where that goes.

Rovner: It’s funny, because the Senate has been a well-oiled machine this year on the spending bills, which is unusual. I was about to say I will point out that there are two women: the chairman and ranking member. But that’s actually also true in the House. We do have women running the appropriations process this year. But I was amused that Kevin McCarthy, sometime during August, a couple of weeks ago, said, you know, very confidently, well, we’ll pass a short-term spending bill. You know, we won’t let the government shut down. And by the next day, the hard-line Republicans, the right wing, were saying, yeah, no you won’t. You’re going to have to deal with us first. And, obviously, there’s lots of health stuff that’s going to get caught up in that. The end of the fiscal year also marks the end of funding authority for a number of prominent programs. This is not the same as the appropriations programs whose authorizations lapse can continue, although things can get complicated. PEPFAR, the two-decade-old bipartisan program that provides AIDS and HIV prevention and treatment around the world, is one of those programs that, at least as of now, looks pretty stuck. Alice, is there any movement on this? We’ve talked about it before.

Ollstein: Not yet. So the latest we know, and we got this last night, is that [Foreign Relations Committee] Chairman [Bob] Menendez in the Senate is floating a new compromise. Basically, supporters of PEPFAR have been pushing for the full five-year standard reauthorization. And a coalition of House Republicans who are claiming that PEPFAR money is going to abortion say they want no reauthorization at all. They just want the program to sort of limp along through appropriations. So between five years and zero, Menendez is now suggesting a three-year extension. There is a huge desire not to just have the one-year funding patch because that would kick all of this into the heat of the 2024 season. And if you think the debate is ugly now over abortion and federal spending, just wait until 2024.

Kenen: I mean, this … [unintelligible] money … it’s saved tens of millions of lives — and with bipartisan support in the past.

Rovner: It was a Republican initiative.

Kenen: Right. It was President Bush, George the second.

Rovner: George W. Bush. Yeah.

Kenen: And they’re not saying they’re actually going out and using the AIDS dollars to conduct, to actually do abortions. They’re saying that there’s, you know, they’re in the world of abortion and they’re promoting abortion, etc., etc. So the conversation gets really, really, really, really muddled. Under U.S. law, they cannot use U.S. dollars for abortion under the Hyde Amendment, you know, all sorts of other foreign policy rules. So it’s hard to overstate how important this program has been, particularly in Africa. It has saved millions and millions of lives. And I think Alice might have broken the story originally, but it got caught up in abortion politics, and it caught people by surprise. This is not something … everything in Washington gets caught up in politics, except this! So I think it’s been quite shocking to people. And it’s, I mean — life-and-death sounds like a, you know, it’s a Washington cliché — this is life-and-death.

Ollstein: Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, even though the program won’t shut down if they don’t manage to get a reauthorization through, you know, I talked to people who run PEPFAR services in other countries, and they said that, you know, having this year-to-year funding and instability and uncertainty — you know, they won’t be able to hire, they won’t be able to do long-term planning. They said this will really undermine the goal to eliminate HIV transmission by 2030.

Cohrs: Oh, I actually did just want to jump in about another Sept. 30 deadline, because there was a big development this week. I know we were just talking about long-term planning. There is funding for community health centers that’s expiring at the end of September as well. DSH cuts could go into effect for hospitals. We do this routine every so often, but the House is actually more in step than the Senate on this issue; they released — at least Republicans released — a draft legislation, where all three committees of jurisdiction are in agreement about how to proceed. There are some transparency measures in there.

Rovner: The three committees in the House.

Cohrs: In the House. Yes, yes, we’re talking about the House. Yeah. So, they have reconciled their differences here and are hoping to go to the floor this month. So, I think they are out of the gate first, certainly with some sort of longer-term solution here. Again, could get punted. But I think it is a pretty big development when we’re talking about these extenders that the industry cares about very much.

Kenen: Congress is so polarized that it can’t even do the things that it agrees on. And we have seen this before where CHIP [Children’s Health Insurance Program] got caught up a few years ago. Community health clinics have gotten caught right in that same bill, right? But, you know, we really have this situation where it’s so dysfunctional they can’t even move fully on things that everybody likes. And community health centers date back to the early ’60s. However, they got a really big expansion, again, under second President Bush. And they’re popular, and they serve a need, and everybody likes them.

Rovner: They got a bigger expansion under the Affordable Care Act.

Kenen: Right, but they, you know — but I think that the Bush years was like the biggest in many years. And then they got more. So again, I mean, are they going to shut their doors? No. Is it going to be a mess? It is already a mess. They can’t — they don’t know what’s coming next. That’s no way to run a railroad or a health clinic.

Rovner: All right, well, one more while we’re on the subject of abortion-related delays: Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville is still blocking Senate approval of routine military promotions to protest the Biden administration’s policy of allowing funding for servicewomen and military dependents to travel for abortions if they’re posted to states where it’s banned. Now, the secretaries of the Army, Navy, and Air Force are joining together to warn that Tuberville’s hold is threatening military readiness. Tuberville apparently went on Fox News last night and said he’s got more people who are coming to support him. Is there any end to this standoff in sight? I mean, people seem to be getting kind of upset about it. It’s been going on since, what, February?

Ollstein: Yeah, there is not yet an end in sight. So far, all of the attempts to pressure Tuberville to back down have only hardened his resolve, it seems, you know, and he’s gone beyond sort of his original statement of, you know, all of this is just to get rid of this policy that doesn’t pay for abortions; it just allows people to travel out of state if they’re stationed — they don’t get to choose where they’re stationed — if they’re stationed somewhere where abortion is not legal or accessible. And so now he’s making claims about other things in the military he considers too woke. He’s criticized some of these individual nominees themselves that he’s blocking, which was not sort of part of the original stand he took. And so, it’s tough, and there isn’t enough floor time to move all of these and go around him. And so this pressure campaign doesn’t seem to be really making any headway. So I don’t really see how this gets resolved at this point.

Kenen: Except that other Republicans are getting a little bit more public. I mean, they were sort of letting him run out for a while. And there’s more Republicans who are clearly getting enough of this. But I mean, unless McConnell can really get him to move — and we don’t know what’s gone on behind closed doors, but we’re certainly not seeing any sign of movement. In fact, as Alice said, he’s digging in more. I mean, like, Marines and woke are not the two words you usually hear in one sentence, but in his worldview, they are. So, I think it’s unprecedented. I mean, I don’t think anyone’s ever done this. It’s not like one or two people. It’s like the entire U.S. military command can’t move ahead.

Rovner: I’ve been doing this a very long time, and I don’t remember anything quite like this. Well, the one thing that we do expect to happen this fall is legislation on — and Rachel, you were referring to this already — sort of health care price transparency and PBMs, the pharmacy benefit managers. Where are we with that? They were supposed to work on it over the August break. Did they?

Cohrs: They were supposed to work on it. The House was clearly working on it and reconciling some of their differences. They’re planning to introduce legislative text on Friday. So, I think Democrats aren’t on board yet, so things could change from the draft they had been circulating early this week. But again, Republicans don’t really need Democrats to move forward, at least in the House. The Senate has been pretty quiet so far. Not to say that no work has gone on, but they certainly weren’t ready for the rollout in the same way that the House was. You know, I think there are still some big questions about, you know, what they’re planning to accomplish with insulin policy, how they’re planning to fit together this jigsaw puzzle of PBM transparency and reforms that have come out of different committees. And I think it’ll come down to [Senate Majority Leader] Sen. Schumer making some tough choices. And from my understanding, that hasn’t quite happened yet. But if the actual showdown happens November, December, they still have some time.

Rovner: Yeah. Now they’re not going out early. They’re clearly going to be fighting over the appropriation. So, the legislative committees have plenty of time to work on these other things. All right. Well, let’s turn to Medicaid for a moment. The quote-unquote “unwinding” continues as states move to redetermine who remains eligible for the program and who doesn’t following the pandemic pause. As predicted, it’s been a bit of a bumpy road. And now it seems a bunch of states have been incorrectly dropping children from Medicaid coverage because their parents are no longer eligible. That’s a problem because nationwide, income limits for children’s eligibility is higher than parents’. In some states, it is much higher. I remember after Hurricane Katrina, in Louisiana, parents were only eligible if they earned 15% of poverty. Somebody said 50, and the Medicaid director said, “No, 15, one-five.” Whereas kids are eligible to, I believe it’s 200% of poverty. And I think that’s a national level.

Kenen: Now, in some states it’s higher.

Rovner: Yes. But I say this is happening in a bunch of states because federal government won’t tell us how many or which ones. We do know it’s more than a dozen, but this is the second time the administration has admonished states for wrongly canceling Medicaid coverage. And they wouldn’t say which states were involved at that time either. Is this an effort to keep this as apolitical as possible, given that the states most likely to be doing this are red states who are trying to remove ineligible people from Medicaid as fast as they can, that they’re trying to sort of keep this from becoming a Republican versus Democrat thing.

Ollstein: It seems like, from what we’re hearing, that the administration is really wary of publicly picking a fight with these states. They want the states to work with them. And so, even if the states are going about this in a way they think is totally wrong, they don’t want to just put them publicly on blast, because they think that’ll make them, again, double down and refuse to work with the government at all. And so, they’re trying to maintain some veneer of cooperation. But at the same time, you’re having, you know, millions of people, including children, falling through the cracks. And so, you know, we have sort of this sternly-worded-letter approach and we’ll see if that accomplishes anything, and if not, you know, what measures can be taken. You know, the administration also created a way for states to hit pause on the process and take a little more time and do a little more verification of people’s eligibility. And some — a couple states — have taken advantage of that, and it’s been successful in, you know, having fewer people dropped for paperwork reasons, but it’s not really happening in the states where it sort of most needs to happen, according to experts.

Rovner: The administration has had fingers pointed at it, too, because apparently it approved some of these plans from the states that were going to look at total family income without realizing that, oh, that meant that kids who are still eligible could end up losing coverage because their parents are no longer eligible.

Kenen: Right. And I also read something yesterday that in some cases it’s sort of a technical issue rather than a “how much outreach and what your intentions are,” that it’s a programing issue, which is related to what Julie just said about the plan. So, it’s not that these states set about to drop these kids, and there may be some kind of goodwill to fix it, in which case you don’t want to get in — and I don’t know that it’s 100% red states either. So —

Rovner: No, that’s clear. We assume, because they’re the ones going fastest, but we do not know.

Kenen: Right, so that there seems to be some kind of — the way it was set up, technically, that can be remedied. And if it’s a technical fix as opposed to an ideological fight, you don’t really want to — you want to figure out how to reprogram the computer or whatever it is they have to do and then go back and catch the people that were lost. So, they’ve been pretty low-key about politicizing rewinding in general. But on the kids, I think they’re going to be even more — CHIP passed, another thing with bipartisan support that’s a mess. I mean, it seems to be the theme of the day. But, you know, CHIP was created on a bipartisan basis, and it’s always been sustained on a bipartisan basis. So, I think that the issue, I don’t know how technically easy it is to fix, but there’s a big difference in how the administration goes after someone that’s intentionally doing something versus someone who wrote their computer programmer set something up wrong.

Rovner: Well, we will definitely keep on this one.

Kenen: But it’s a big mess. It’s a lot of kids.

Rovner: It is a big mess. And let’s turn to the thing that is not bipartisan in Congress, and that is —

Kenen: That’ll be a bigger mess.

Rovner: — Medicare drug negotiations. Yes. While we were away, the federal government released its much-anticipated list of the 10 brand-name drugs that will be the first tranche up for potential price negotiation. I say potential, because the companies have the option of negotiating or not — sort of — and because there are now, I think, nine lawsuits challenging the entire program. My interview with Medicare administrator Meena Seshamani will get into the nuts and bolts of how the negotiation program is supposed to work. But Rachel, tell us a little bit about the drugs on the list and how their makers are trying to cancel this entire enterprise before it even begins.

Cohrs: Sure. So, a lot of these drugs that we’re seeing on the list are blood thinners. Some are diabetes medications. There are drugs for heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, and there’s also a cancer treatment, too. But I think overall, the drugs were chosen because they have high cost to Medicare. And it was —

Rovner: So that either could mean a lot of people use an inexpensive drug —

Cohrs: Yes.

Rovner: — or a few people use a very expensive drug.

Cohrs: Correct. And it was Wall Street’s favorite parlor game to try to guess what drugs were going to be on this list of 10 drugs that are going to be the guinea pigs to go through this program for the very first time. But it was interesting, because there were a few surprises. Medicare officials were using newer data than Wall Street analysts had access to. So, there were a couple drugs, especially further down on the list, that people used more in the period CMS [Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services] was studying than had been used previously. So, we saw a couple very interesting instances of a drug being chosen for the list, even though it just kind of fell through the cracks. It was J&J’s [Johnson & Johnson’s] Stelara. It’s a Crohn’s disease treatment, and it does have competition coming in the market soon, but just because of a fluke of kind of when it was approved by the FDA, it just missed cutoffs for some of these exemptions and is now subject to some pretty significant discounts through the program.

Rovner: We’ll link to your very sad story about Stelara.

Cohrs: Sad for the company, but not sad for the patients who will hopefully be paying less for this medication. And there’s also the case of Astellas [Pharma Inc.], which makes a prostate cancer drug that’s very expensive. A lot of people expected that to be selected, but actually wasn’t. And Astellas had sued the Biden administration already before the list came out and then had to withdraw their lawsuit yesterday because their argument that they were going to be harmed by this legislation was made much weaker by the fact that they weren’t selected for this first year of the program. So, who knows? They could dust off their arguments a year from now or two years from now. But it was interesting to see kind of some of these surprises on the list. Again, there are still several, like you mentioned, outstanding lawsuits in several different jurisdictions. I think the main one that we’re watching is by the [U.S.] Chamber of Commerce, which requested a preliminary injunction by the end of this month. So, we’ll see if that comes through. But it is a very long road to 2026. There might be a new administration by then. So, I think there are still a lot of questions about whether this reaches the finish line. But I think it’s a very important step for CMS to get this list out there in the world.

Rovner: So, I spent some time digging in my notes from earlier years, and I dug up notes from an interview I did on Aug. 26 with a spokesperson from the drug industry about how the Medicare drug benefit, quote, “impact the ability of companies to research new medicines. And if that happens, the elderly would be the ones hurt the most.” That quote, by the way, was from Aug. 26 of 1987. Some things truly never change. But is this maybe, possibly, the beginning of the end of drugmakers being able to charge whatever they want in the United States? Because it’s the only country where they can.

Cohrs: Oh, they can still charge whatever they want. This law doesn’t change that. It just changes the fact that Medicare won’t be paying whatever drugmakers happen to charge for an unlimited amount of time. Like, they can still charge whatever they want to Medicare for as long as they can get on the market before they’re selected for this negotiation program. But certainly there could be significant cost — significant savings to Medicare, even if those prices are high. And it’s just kind of a measure that forces price reductions, even if the generic or biosimilar market isn’t functioning to lower those prices through competition.

Kenen: Right. And it’s only Medicare. So, people who are not on Medicare — insurance companies also negotiate prices, but they’re not the government. It’s different. But I mean, these drugs are not going to start being, you know, three bucks.

Rovner: But they may stop being 300,000.

Kenen: Well, we don’t know, because there are some people who think that if Medicare is paying less, they’re going to charge everybody else more. We just don’t know. We don’t know what their behavior is going to be. But no, this does not solve the question of affordability of medication in the United States.

Rovner: The drug companies certainly think it’s the camel’s nose under the tent.

Kenen: They have some medicine for camels’ noses that they can charge a lot of money for, I’m sure.

Rovner: I bet they do. While we are on the subject of things that I have covered since the 1980s, last week the Biden administration finally put out its regulation requiring that nursing homes be staffed 24/7/365 by, you know, an actual nurse. One of the first big reconciliation bills I covered was in 1987 — that was a big year for health policy — and it completely overhauled federal regulation of nursing homes, except for mandating staffing standards, because the nursing homes said they couldn’t afford it. Basically, that same fight has been going on ever since. Except now the industry also says there aren’t enough nurses to hire, even if they could afford it. Yet patient advocates say these admittedly low staffing ratios that the Biden administration has put out are still not enough. So, what happens now? Is this going to be like the prescription drug industry, where they’re going to try to sue their way out of it? Or is it going to be more like the hospital transparency, where they’re just not going to do it and say, “Come and get us”?

Kenen: My suspicion is litigation, but it’s too soon to know. I assume that either one of the nursing home chains — because there are some very big corporations that own a lot of nursing homes — there are several nursing home trade industry groups, for-profit, nonprofit. Does one owner — is in an area where there is a workforce shortage, because that does exist. I mean, I’d be surprised if we don’t see some litigation, because when don’t we see that? I mean, it’s rare. That’s the norm in health care, is somebody sues. Some of the workforce issues are real, but also this proposal doesn’t go into effect tomorrow. It’s not like — but I mean, there are issues of the nursing workforce. There are issues about not just the number of nurses, but do we have them in the right places doing the right jobs? It’s not just RNs [registered nurses]; there are also shortages of other direct care workers. I did a story a few months ago on this, and there are actually nursing homes that have closed entire wings because they don’t have enough staff, and those are some of the nonprofits. There are nursing issues.

Rovner: And a lot of nursing home staff got sick at the beginning of the covid pandemic, and many of them died before there were good treatments. I mean, it’s always been a very hard and not very well-paid job to care for people in nursing homes. And then it became a not very pleasant, not very well-paid, and very deadly job. So I don’t think that’s probably helping the recruitment of people to work in nursing.

Kenen: Right, but the issue — I think a lot of people, when you have your first family experience with a nursing home or, you know, or those of us reporters who hadn’t been familiar with them until we went and did some stories on them, I think people are surprised at how little nursing there actually is. It’s nurses’ aides; it’s, you know, what they used to call licensed practical nurses or nursing assistants; and CNAs, certified nursing assistants. They’re various; different states have different names. But these are not four-year RNs. The amount of actual nursing — forget doctors. I mean, there’s just not a lot of RNs in nursing homes. There’s not a lot of doctors who spend time in nursing homes. A lot of the care is done through people with less training. So, this is trying to get more nurses in nursing homes. And there’s been a lot of stories about inadequate care. KFF Health News — I think it was Jordan Rau who did them. There have been some good stories about particularly nights and weekends, just really nobody there. These are fragile people. And they wouldn’t be in a nursing home if they weren’t fragile people. There are a lot of horror stories. At the same time, there are some legitimate — How fast can you do this? And how well can you do it? And can you do it across the country? I mean, it’s going to take some working out, but I don’t think anybody thinks that nursing home care in this country is, you know, a paragon of what we want our elders to experience.

Rovner: And the nursing home industry points out, truthfully, that most nursing home payments now come from Medicaid, because even people who start out being able to afford it themselves often run out of money and then they end up — then they qualify for Medicaid. And Medicaid in many states doesn’t pay very much, doesn’t pay nursing homes very much. So it’s hard for these companies. We’re not even talking about the private equity companies. A lot of nursing homes operate on the financial edge. I mean, there are —our long-term care policy in this country is, you know, just: What happens, happens, and we’ll worry about it later. And this has been going on for 50 years. And now we have baby boomers retiring and getting older and needing nursing home care. And at some point, this is all going to come to a head. All right. Well, let us turn to abortion. This week marks the second anniversary of the Texas abortion ban, the so-called heartbeat bill, that bans most abortion and lets individuals sue other individuals for helping anyone getting an abortion, which the Supreme Court, if you’ll recall, allowed to take effect months before it formally overturned Roe v. Wade. And, I guess not surprisingly, Texas is still in the news about abortion. This time. The same people who brought us Texas SB 8, which is the heartbeat bill, are going town by town and trying to pass ordinances that make it illegal to use roads within that town’s borders to help anyone obtain an abortion. They’re calling it abortion “trafficking.” Now, it’s not only not clear to me whether a local ordinance can even impact a state or an interstate highway, which is what these laws are mostly aimed at; but how on earth would you enforce something like this, even if you want to?

Ollstein: So, my impression is that they do not want to. These are not meant to be practical. They are not meant to be enforced, because how would you do it other than implementing a very totalitarian checkpoint system? This is meant to —

Rovner: Yes, have you been drinking and are you on your way to get an abortion?

Ollstein: Right. Right, right, right. So, it seems like the main purpose is to have a chilling effect, which it very well could have, even if it doesn’t stand up in court. You know, you also have this situation that we’ve had play out in other ways, where people are challenging laws in courts for having a chilling effect, and courts are saying, look, you have to wait till you actually get prosecuted and challenge it, you know, do an as-applied challenge. If you can’t challenge unless there’s a prosecution but there’s no prosecutions, then you sort of just have it hanging over your head like a cloud.

Kenen: Like Alice said, there’s no way you could do this. Like, what do you do, stop every car and give every person a pregnancy test? Are you going to, like, have, you know, ultrasounds on the E-ZPass monitors? Like, you go through it, it checks your uterus. So, I mean, it’s just not — you can’t do this. But I think one of the things that was really interesting in one of the stories I read about it, I think it was in The Washington Post, was that when they interviewed people about it, they thought it was trafficking, like really trafficking, that there were pregnant woman being kidnapped and forced to have an abortion. So even if you’re pro-choice, you might say, “Oh, I’m against abortion trafficking. I mean, I don’t want anyone to be forced to have an abortion.” You know, so, it’s — the wording and the whole design of it is, they know what they’re doing. I mean, they want to create this confusion. They want to create a disincentive. There’s no way — you know, radar guns? I mean, it’s just, there’s no way of doing this. But it is part of the effort to clamp down even further on a state that has already really, really, really clamped down.

Rovner: Although, I mean, if one could sue and if one could then know about something that’s happening and then you could presumably take the person to court and say, I know you were pregnant and now you’re not, and somebody took you in a car to New Mexico or whatever …

Kenen: You can’t even prove — how do you prove that it wasn’t a miscarriage?

Rovner: That’s —

Kenen: Right? I mean …

Rovner: I’m not saying — I’m not talking about the burden of proof. I’m just saying in theory, somebody could try to have a case here. I mean, but we certainly know that Texas has done a very good job creating a chilling effect, because we still have this lawsuit from the women who were not seeking abortions, who had pregnancy complications and were unable to get health-saving and, in some cases, lifesaving care promptly. And that’s still being litigated. But meanwhile, we have, you know, just today a study out from the Guttmacher Institute that showed that despite how well these states that are banning abortion have done in banning abortion, there were presumably more abortions in the first half of 2023 than there were before these bans took effect, because women from ban states were going to states where it is not banned. And there has been, ironically, better access in those states where it is not banned. I can’t imagine that this is going to please the anti-abortion community. One would think it would make them double down, wouldn’t it?

Ollstein: We know that people are leaving their states to obtain an abortion. We also know that that’s not an option for a lot of people, and not just because a lot of people can’t afford it or they can’t take time off work, they can’t get child care — tons of reasons why somebody might not be able to travel out of state. They have a disability, they’re undocumented. We also have — it’s become easier and easier and easier to obtain abortion pills online through, you know, a variety of ways: individual doctors in more progressive states, big online pharmacies are engaged in this, overseas activist groups are engaged in this. And so, you know, that’s also become an option for a lot of people. And anti-abortion groups know that those are the two main methods. People are still continuing to have abortions. And so, they’re continuing to just throw out different ways to try to either, you know, deter people or actually block them from either of those paths.

Rovner: This fight will also continue on. So, that is this week’s news. Now we will play my interview with Meena Seshamani, and then we will come back and do our extra credits.

Hey, “What the Health?” listeners, you already know that few things in health care are ever simple. So, if you like our show, I recommend you also listen to “Tradeoffs,” a podcast that goes even deeper into our costly, complicated, and often counterintuitive health care system. Hosted by longtime health care journalist and friend Dan Gorenstein, “Tradeoffs” digs into the evidence and research data behind health care policies and tells the stories of real people impacted by decisions made in C-suites, doctors’ offices, and even Congress. Subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts.

I am pleased to welcome back to the podcast Dr. Meena Seshamani, deputy administrator and director of the Center for Medicare at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Meena was with us to talk generally about Medicare’s new prescription drug negotiation program earlier this summer. But now that the first 10 drugs subject to negotiation have been announced, we’re pleased to have her back. Welcome.

Meena Seshamani: Thank you for having me.

Rovner: So, remind our listeners, why hasn’t Medicare been able to negotiate drug prices until now — they negotiate prices of everything else — and what changed to make that happen?

Seshamani: That’s right. It was because of the Medicare law that Medicare did not have the ability to negotiate drugs. And thanks to the new drug law, the Inflation Reduction Act, now Medicare has the ability to negotiate the prices of the highest-cost drugs that don’t have competition. And that is part of the announcement that we had on what the first 10 drugs are that have been selected.

Rovner: So, as you say, last week, for the first time and in time for the Sept. 1 deadline, Medicare announced the list of the first 10 drugs that will be part of the first round of price negotiations. Why these 10 specifically? I imagine it’s not a coincidence that the list includes some of the drugs whose ads we see the most often on TV: drugs like Eliquis, Xarelto, and Jardiance, which I of course know how to pronounce because I see the ads all the time.

Seshamani: Well, the process of selection really was laid out in the drug law and also through the guidance that we put out that we had incorporated everybody’s comment for. So, what we did is we started with the, you know, over 7,500 drugs that are covered in the Part D Medicare prescription drug program. From there, we picked those drugs that had been on the market for seven years for a drug product or 11 years for a larger molecule or biologic product that did not have competition. And then from there, there are various exemptions and exclusions that, again, are laid out in the law: for example, drugs that have low Medicare spend, of less than $200 million; drugs that are plasma-derived products; certain orphan drugs. An orphan drug is a drug that is indicated for a rarer disease. So that, again, those specific criteria are laid out in the law and in our guidance. And then there were opportunities for manufacturers to apply, for example, for a small biotech exemption; if their drug was, you know, 80% of their, you know, Medicare Part D revenue, they could say, “Hey, I’m a small biotech.” Again, a lot of these criteria were laid out in the law. Or for a manufacturer of a biosimilar, which is kind of like a generic drug for one of these biologic drugs, they could say, “Hey, we have a biosimilar that’s going to be coming on the market, has a high likelihood of coming on the market, so you should delay negotiating” the brand, if you will, drug. So, again, all of these steps were laid out in the drug law, and those are the steps and criteria that we followed that came to that list of 10 drugs that we published.

Rovner: I did see the makers of one drug — and forgive me, I can’t remember which one it was — saying, “But our drug isn’t that expensive.” On the other hand, their drug is used by a lot of people on Medicare. So, it’s not just the list price of the drug, right? It’s how much it costs Medicare overall.

Seshamani: That’s right. The list is made up of those drugs that have the highest gross total cost to the program — so, price per unit times units of volume that is used.

Rovner: So, how does this negotiation process work? What happens now? Now we have this list of 10 drugs.

Seshamani: Yeah, a lot of this is also laid out in the law, and then we fleshed out further in our guidance. So, from the list of 10 drugs, on Oct. 1, manufacturers now have to decide if they want to participate in the negotiation program. It is a voluntary program. It is our hope that they will come to the table and want to negotiate, because I think we all have shared goals of improving access and affordability and really driving innovation for the cures and therapies that people need. So, Oct. 1, they sign agreements for the negotiation program if they decide to participate. And Oct. 2 is the deadline for gathering data. We put out what’s called an information collection request to say, this is the kind of data we’re thinking about collecting. We got lots of comments and incorporated that. So, that provides the framework for the data that we’re requesting both from the manufacturer of the selected drug, but also, there are aspects open to the public on, you know, how the drug benefits populations, for example. So that’s Oct. 2. Then we’re going to have patient-focused listening sessions, a session for each drug, for patients, their caregivers, you know, other advocates, to be able to share what they see as the benefits of the drugs that are selected. And, we will have meetings with each of the manufacturers. All of that information will come together in an initial offer that CMS will make Feb. 1, 2024, and that is a date that is stipulated in the law. The manufacturer then has about 30 days to evaluate that. If they like that offer, they can agree. If they want, they can make a counteroffer. From that counteroffer, CMS has the ability to agree or to say, “You know, we don’t agree, so let’s now have a series of negotiation meetings.” There can be up to three negotiation meetings that provides that back-and-forth, ultimately leading to an agreed-upon what’s called maximum fair price in the law. And those maximum fair prices are published by Sept. 1, 2024. Again, that Sept. 1 is stipulated in the law. And also as part of this process, CMS will publish a narrative about that negotiation process — you know, the data that was received, you know, the back-and-forth, and also we’ll publish ultimately the maximum fair prices that are agreed to.

Rovner: And does that maximum fair price just apply to Medicare?

Seshamani: The maximum fair price just applies to Medicare. The information will be available. I mean, we don’t have any authority. You know, the commercial sector, they do their own negotiations, and they will continue to do so. But part of this is an opportunity to really further the conversation about how drugs impact the lives of people. We have an opportunity now with some drugs that have been on the market for quite a while, right? Minimum of seven years or 11 years, to see how these drugs work in the real world, in people’s communities, so that we can incorporate that into what it is that we need and want for people to be healthy, to stay out of the hospital, to live meaningful lives. So it’s really an opportunity to further that conversation. And a lot of that data, a lot of those listening sessions, that will all go into our negotiation process and will be part of the narrative that we publish.

Rovner: And what happens if the drug company says either we don’t want to negotiate or we don’t like our final offer? If they say they don’t want to play, what happens?

Seshamani: Julie, I will say again, to start with, we are hopeful that the drug companies will come forward and will want to negotiate because, again, through many conversations that we have had, we do have shared goals of access and affordability and really driving innovation and procures and therapies that people need. And it is a choice for drug companies if they want to participate or not, as stipulated in the law. If a drug company decides not to sign, you know, the negotiation agreement, not to participate in negotiation, then we would refer them to the Department of Treasury for an excise tax. That excise tax is also described in the law. If a drug company has this excise tax applied, they can get out of paying the excise tax. If, No. 1, they decide to come to the table and negotiate, or No. 2, if they exit the Medicare and Medicaid market. So those are kind of their off-ramps, if you will, for that excise tax.

Rovner: So they don’t have to participate in the negotiation, but they also don’t have to participate in Medicare and Medicaid.

Seshamani: Correct.

Rovner: So I saw a lot of complaining last week with the first group of drugs that this is really only going to benefit the people on Medicare who take those drugs. But, in fact, if there really is a lot of money saved, the benefits could go well beyond this, right?

Seshamani: Yeah, I think two points. So, yes, this negotiation is for, you know, some of the highest-cost drugs to the Medicare program that don’t have competition. And the negotiated drug prices apply to the Medicare program. However, as we talked about, this really drives a conversation around drugs and really grounding this negotiation process in the clinical benefit that a drug provides. Considering things like if a drug is easier for someone to take and it’s easier for a caregiver, that can have tangible improvements to the health of the person they’re caring for, right? And I think we have that opportunity to really drive the conversation. And as we know in many aspects of health care, people look to Medicare to see what Medicare is doing. And also, the transparency around providing that narrative of the negotiation, publishing the maximum fair prices that are agreed to. That’s all data that anybody can use as they would like. And I think the second piece that’s important to remember is that negotiation is one very important piece of a very big change to Medicare prescription drug coverage. You know, alongside the $2,000 out-of-pocket tab that’s going to go into effect in 2025, the no-cost vaccines, $35 copay cap for insulin that have already gone into effect. So, really, it is part of a larger sea change in Medicare drug coverage that will help millions of people and their families. You know, I did a roundtable with seniors as we were rolling out the insulin copay cap. And one woman was telling me that she was providing money to her brother every month so that he could pay for his insulin on Medicare. So, really, I mean, this has tremendous impact not just for people on Medicare, but their families, their communities, and really furthers the conversation for the entire system.

Rovner: I was actually thinking of more nitty-gritty money, which is if you save money for Medicare, premiums will be lower for people who are getting drug coverage, and taxpayers will save money, too, right? I mean, this is not just for these people and their families.

Seshamani: Our priority is being able to reach agreement on a fair price for the people who rely on these medications for their lives and the American taxpayer in the Medicare program.

Rovner: I know you can’t comment on lawsuits, and there are many lawsuits already challenging this. But the drug companies, one of their major arguments is that if you limit what they can charge for their drugs, particularly in the United States, the last country where they can charge whatever they want for their drugs, they will not be able to afford to keep the pipeline going to discover more new, important drugs. This is an argument they’ve been making since, I told somebody earlier, since I covered this in the late 1980s. What is your response just to that argument?

Seshamani: Well, I think there were several articles, many articles were written about this on the day that the 10 selected drugs were published. They were published before the stock market opened. And there really was no impact on the stocks of the companies. There were many financial pieces written about this. So I think that is one indication of the fact that the pharmaceutical industry is strong, it is thriving, and it is designed to innovate. And what we’re hoping to do through this negotiation program is really reward the kinds of innovations that we all need, the cures and therapies that people need. Recently, the venture fund that backed Moderna invested in a new startup for small molecules. Bayer has recently invested a billion dollars in the U.S. So you see, the industry very much is thriving. That is what the stock market response also shows. And it’s also the way that we are approaching negotiation to make sure that we’re rewarding the kinds of innovations that people need.

Rovner: Well, Meena Seshamani, thank you so much. I hope we can come back to you as this negotiation process for the first time proceeds.

Seshamani: Absolutely. Thanks again, Julie.

Rovner: OK. We are back, and it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s when we each recommend a story we read this week we think you should read too. As always, don’t worry if you miss it. We will post the links on the podcast page at kffhealthnews.org and in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Alice, why don’t you go first this week?

Ollstein: Yeah, I picked a very sad story from The Washington Post about how people who have schizophrenia are a lot more vulnerable to extreme heat. And it’s rare to find one of these health care stories where you’re just astonished. You know, I had no idea about this. You know, it really walks through not only are people more vulnerable for mental health reasons, you know, it profiles this terrible story of a guy in Phoenix who wandered off into the desert and died because he was experiencing paranoid delusions. But also, just physically, people with schizophrenia have difficulty regulating their body temperature. A lot of medications people take make people more dehydrated, less able to cope. And just an astonishingly high percentage of people hospitalized and killed by extreme heat have these mental illnesses. Of course, they’re also more likely to have housing instability or be out on the street. So just a fascinating piece, and I hope it spurs cities to think of ways to address it. One other small thing I want to compliment is it just, technically, on this article online, they have a little widget where you can convert all of the temperatures cited in the lengthy story from Fahrenheit to Celsius. And I just really appreciated that for allowing, you know, no matter where you live, you sort of get what these high temperatures mean.

Rovner: Yeah, graphics can be really helpful sometimes. Rachel.

Cohrs: Yeah. So I chose a story in The Wall Street Journal and the headline is “How Novartis’s CEO Learned From His Mistakes and Got Help From an Unlikely Quarter,” by Jared S. Hopkins. And I think it was a really interesting and rare look inside one of these pharmaceutical companies. And Novartis hired a Wall Street analyst, Ronny Gal, to help advise them. And I think I had read his analysis before he crossed over to Novartis. So I think it was interesting to just hear how that has integrated into Novartis’ strategy and just how they’re changing their business. But I think as we’re, you know, having these conversations about drug pricing and how strategies are changing due to some of these policies, it is helpful to look at who these executives are listening to and what they’re prioritizing, whose voices in this decision-making process that really has impacts for so many people who are waiting for treatments. And I think there are tough choices that are made all the time. So I just thought it was very illuminating and helpful as we’re talking about how medicines get made in D.C.

Rovner: Yeah, maybe there will be a little more transparency to actually how the drug industry works. We will see. Joanne.

Kenen: With Julie’s permission, I have two that are both short and related. I wrote a piece for Politico Nightly called “How to Wage War on Conspiracy Theories,” and I liked it because it really linked political trends and disinformation and attempts to debunk, with very parallel things going on in the world of health care and efforts to the motivations and efforts to sow trust and what we do and do not know about how to debunk, which we’re not very good at yet. And then the classic example, of course, is the related AP story, which has a very long headline, so bear with me. It’s by Kevin McGill: “Court Revives Doctors’ Lawsuit Saying FDA Overstepped Its Authority With Anti-Ivermectin Campaign.” And, basically, it’s that the 5th Circuit, a conservative court that we’ve talked about before, is saying that the FDA is allowed to inform doctors, but it can’t advise doctors. And I’m not really sure what the difference is there, because if the FDA is informing doctors that ivermectin, we now know, does not work against covid, and it can in fact harm people, there’s ample data, that the FDA is not allowed to tell doctors not to use it. So the ivermectin campaign is a form of disinformation, or misinformation, whatever you want to call it, that at the very beginning, people had, you know, there were some test-tube experiments. We had nothing else. You can sort of see why people wanted … might have wanted to try it. But we have lots and lots and lots of good solid clinical research and human beings and, no, it does not cure covid. It does not improve covid. And it can be damaging. It’s for parasites, not viruses.

Rovner: It can cure worms. Well, I’m going to channel my inner Margot Sanger-Katz this week and choose a story from a medical journal, in this case the Journal of the American Medical Association. Its lead author is Sherry Glied, who’s dean of the NYU Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service and former assistant HHS [Department of Health and Human Services] secretary for planning and evaluation during the Obama administration — and I daresay one of the most respected health policy analysts anywhere. The piece is called “Health Systems and Social Services — A Bridge Too Far?” And it’s the first article I’ve seen that really does question whether what’s become dogma in health policy over the past decade that — tending to what are called social determinants of health, things like housing, education, and nutrition — can improve health as much as medical care can. Rather, argues Glied, quote, “There are fundamental mismatches between the priorities and capabilities of hospitals and health systems and the task of addressing social determinants of health,” and that, basically, medical providers should leave social services to those who are professional social service providers. That is obviously a gross oversimplification of the argument of the piece, however, but I found it really thought-provoking and really, for the first time, someone saying, maybe we shouldn’t be spending all of this health care money on social determinants of health. Maybe we should let social service money go to the social service determinants of health. Anyway, we will see if this is the start of a trend or just sort of one outlier voice. OK, that is our show for this week. As always, if you enjoy the podcast, you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We’d appreciate it if you left us a review; that helps other people find us, too. Special thanks, as always, to our amazing engineer, Francis Ying. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org. Or you can tweet me, or X me, or whatever. I’m still there @jrovner, also on Bluesky and Threads. Rachel?

Cohrs: I’m @rachelcohrs on X.

Rovner: Alice.

Ollstein: @AliceOllstein.

Rovner: Joanne.

Kenen: @JoanneKenen on Twitter, @joannekenen1 on Threads.

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy.

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But a research study the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services commissioned to identify the appropriate level of staffing made no specific recommendations and analyzed only staffing levels lower than what the previous major federal evaluation had considered best, according to a copy of the study reviewed Monday by KFF Health News. Instead, the new study said there was no single staffing level that would guarantee quality care, although the report estimated that higher staffing levels would lead to fewer hospitalizations and emergency room visits, faster care, and fewer failures to provide care.

Patient advocates said the report was the latest sign that the administration would fall short of its pledge to establish robust staffing levels to protect the 1.2 million Americans in skilled nursing facilities. Already, the administration is six months behind its self-imposed deadline of February to propose new rules. Those proposals, which have not been released, have been under evaluation since May by the Office of Management and Budget. The study, dated June 2023, has not been formally released either, but a copy was posted on the CMS website. It was taken down shortly after KFF Health News published this article.

“It’s honestly heartbreaking,” said Richard Mollot, executive director of the Long Term Care Community Coalition, a nonprofit that advocates for nursing home patients in New York state. “I just don’t see how this doesn’t ultimately put more residents at risk of neglect and abuse. Putting the government’s imprimatur on a standard that is patently unsafe is going to make it much more difficult for surveyors to hold facilities accountable for the harm caused by understaffing nursing homes.”

For months, the nursing home industry has been lobbying strenuously against a uniform ratio of patients to nurses and aides. “What is clear as you look across the country is every nursing home is unique and a one-size-fits-all approach does not work,” said Holly Harmon, senior vice president of quality, regulatory, and clinical services at the American Health Care Association, an industry trade group.

Nursing home groups have emphasized the widespread difficulty in finding workers willing to fill existing certified nursing assistant jobs, which are often grueling and pay less than what workers can make at retail stores. Homes say their licensed nurses are often drawn away by other jobs, such as better-paying hospital positions. “The workforce challenges are real,” said Katie Smith Sloan, president and CEO of LeadingAge, an association that represents nonprofit nursing homes.

The industry has also argued that if the government wants it to hire more workers it needs to increase the payments it makes through state Medicaid programs, which are the largest payor for nursing home care. Advocates and some researchers have argued that nursing homes, particularly for-profit ones, can afford to pay employees more and hire additional staff if they forsake some of the profits they give investors.

“Certainly, facilities haven’t put all the dollars back into direct care over the years,” said David Grabowski, a professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School. “But for certain facilities, it’s going to be a big lift to pay for” higher staffing levels, he said in an interview last week.

In a written statement to KFF Health News, Jonathan Blum, CMS’ principal deputy administrator and chief operating officer, said the study had been posted in error. “CMS is committed to holding nursing homes accountable for protecting the health and safety of all residents, and adequate staffing is critical to this effort,” he said. “CMS’s proposal is being developed using a rigorous process that draws on a wide range of source information, including extensive input from residents and their families, workers, administrators, experts, and other stakeholders. Our focus is on advancing implementable solutions that promote safe, quality care for residents.” Blum’s statement called the study a “draft,” although nothing in the 478-page study indicated it was preliminary.

The study has been widely anticipated, both because of the central role the administration said it would play in its policy and because the last major CMS study, conducted in 2001, had concluded that nursing home care improves as staffing increases up to the level of about one worker for every six residents. The formal metric for that staffing level was 4.1 staff hours per resident per day, which is calculated by dividing the number of total hours worked by nurses and aides on duty daily by the number of residents present each day.

CMS never adopted that staffing ratio and instead gave each nursing home discretion to determine a reasonable staffing level. Regulators rarely cite nursing homes for insufficient staffing, even though independent researchers have concluded low staffing is the root of many nursing home injuries. Too few nurse aides, for instance, often means immobile residents are not repositioned in bed, causing bedsores that can lead to infection. Low staffing also is often responsible for indignities residents face, such as being left in soiled bedsheets for hours.

The new research was conducted by Abt Associates, a regular contractor for CMS that also performed the 2001 study. But the report, in an implicit disagreement with its predecessor, concluded there was “no obvious plateau at which quality and safety are maximized or ‘cliff’ below which quality and safety steeply decline.” Abt referred questions about the study to CMS.

The study evaluated four minimum staffing levels, all of which were below the 4.1 daily staff hours that the prior study had identified as ideal. The highest was 3.88 daily staff hours. At that level, the study estimated 0.6% of residents would get delayed care and 0.002% would not get needed care. It also said that staffing level would result in 12,100 fewer hospitalizations of Medicare residents and 14,800 fewer emergency room visits. The report said three-quarters of nursing homes would need to add staff to meet that level and that it would cost $5.3 billion extra each year.

The lowest staffing level the report analyzed was 3.3 daily staffing hours. At that level, the report said, 3.3% of residents would get delayed care and 0.04% would not get needed care. That level would reduce hospitalizations of Medicare residents by 5,800 and lead to 4,500 fewer emergency room visits. More than half of nursing homes would have to increase staff levels to meet that ratio, the report said, and it would cost $1.5 billion more each year.

Charlene Harrington, a professor emeritus of nursing at the University of California-San Francisco, said CMS “sabotaged” the push for sufficiently high staffing through the instructions it gave its contractor. “Every threshold they looked at was below 4.1,” she said. “How can that possibly be a decent study? It’s just unacceptable.”

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Medicare and Medicaid patients will make up 92% of the market for lecanemab, according to Eisai Co., which sells the drug under the brand name Leqembi. In addition to the company’s $26,500 annual price tag for the drug, treatment could cost U.S. taxpayers $82,500 per patient per year, on average, for genetic tests and frequent brain scans, safety monitoring, and other care, according to estimates from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, or ICER. The FDA gave the drug full approval July 6. About 1 million Alzheimer’s patients in the U.S. could qualify to use it.

Patients with early Alzheimer’s disease who took lecanemab in a major clinical trial declined an average of five months slower than other subjects over an 18-month period, but many suffered brain swelling and bleeding. Although those side effects usually resolved without obvious harm, they apparently caused three deaths. The great expense of the drug and its treatment raises questions about how it will be paid for, and who will benefit.

“In the history of science, it’s a significant achievement to slightly slow down progression of dementia,” said John Mafi, a researcher and associate professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. “But the actual practical benefits to patients are very marginal, and there is a real risk and a real cost.”

To qualify for Leqembi, patients must undergo a PET scan that looks for amyloid plaques, the protein clumps that clog the brains of many Alzheimer’s patients. About 1 in 5 patients who took Leqembi in the major clinical test of the drug developed brain hemorrhaging or swelling, a risk that requires those taking the drug to undergo frequent medical checkups and brain scans called MRIs.

In anticipation of additional costs from the Leqembi drug class, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in 2021 increased monthly premiums for Medicare patients by 15%, and premiums may rise again in 2024 after a slight decline this year.

Such increases can be a significant burden for many of the 62 million Medicare subscribers who live on fixed incomes. “Real people will be affected,” Mafi said. He contributed to a study that estimated lecanemab and related care would cost Medicare $2 billion to $5 billion a year, making it one of the most expensive taxpayer-funded treatments.

In its analysis, ICER suggested that Leqembi could be cost-effective at an annual price of $8,900 to $21,500. In an interview, David Rind, ICER’s chief medical officer, said $10,000 to $15,000 a year would be reasonable. “Above that range doesn’t seem like a good place,” he said.

Whatever its price, patients may be delayed getting access to Leqembi because of the relative shortage of specialists capable of managing the drug, which will require genetic and neuropsychological testing as well as the PET scan to confirm a patient’s eligibility. A similar drug, Eli Lilly’s donanemab, is likely to win FDA approval this year.

Already there are long waits for the testing needed to assess dementia, Mafi said, noting that one of his patients with mild cognitive impairment had to wait eight months for an evaluation.

Such testing is not readily at hand because of the paucity of effective treatment for Alzheimer’s, which has helped to make geriatrics a relatively unappealing specialty. The United States has about a third as many dementia specialists per capita as Germany, and about half as many as Italy.

“Time is of the essence” for the neuropsychological testing, Mafi said, because once a patient’s cognitive ability declines below a certain threshold, they become ineligible for treatment with the drug, which was tested only in patients in the earliest stages of the disease.

Mafi’s study estimates that patients without supplemental Medicare coverage will have to pay about $6,600 out-of-pocket for each year of treatment. That could put it out of reach for many of the 1 in 7 “dual eligible” Medicare beneficiaries whose income is low enough to simultaneously qualify them for state Medicaid programs. Those programs are responsible for about 20% of physician bills for drug infusions, but they don’t always cover the full amount.

Some practitioners, such as cancer centers, cover their Medicaid losses by receiving higher rates for privately insured patients. But since almost all lecanemab patients are likely to be on government insurance, that “cross-subsidization” is less of an option, said Soeren Mattke, director of the Center for Improving Chronic Illness Care at the University of Southern California.

This poses a serious health equity issue because “dual eligibles are low-income patients with limited opportunities and education, and at higher risk of chronic illnesses including dementia,” Mattke said in an interview. Yet many doctors may not be willing to treat them, he said. “The idea of denying access to this group is just appalling.”

Eisai spokesperson Libby Holman said the company was reaching out to specialists and primary care physicians to make them aware of the drug, and that reimbursement options were improving. Eisai will provide the drug at no cost to patients in financial need, she said, and its “patient navigators” can help lock down insurance coverage.

“A lot of clinicians are excited about the drug, and patients are hearing about it,” said David Moss, chief financial officer of INmune Bio, a company that has another Alzheimer’s drug in development. “It’s a money center for infusion centers and MRI operators. It provides reasons for patients to come into the office, which is a billing thing.”

Outstanding doubts about Leqembi and related drugs have given urgency to efforts to monitor patient experiences. CMS is requiring Leqembi patients to be entered into a registry that tracks their outcomes. The agency has established a registry, but the Alzheimer’s Association, the leading advocacy group for dementia patients, is funding its own database to track those being treated, offering physician practices $2,500 to join it and up to $300 per patient visit.

In a letter to CMS on July 27, a group of policy experts said CMS should ensure that any and all Leqembi registries create and share data detailed enough for researchers and FDA safety teams to obtain a clear picture of the drug’s real-world profile.

The anti-amyloid drugs like lecanemab have created a polarized environment in medicine between those who think the drugs are a dangerous waste of money and those who believe they are a brilliant first step to a cure, said ICER’s Rind, who thinks lecanemab has modest benefits.

“People are as dug in on this as almost anything I’ve ever seen in medicine,” he said. “I don’t think it’s healthy.”

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¿Deberían perder este modesto peso extra para optimizar su salud? Esta pregunta surge ante la aparición de una nueva categoría de fármacos para la diabetes y la pérdida de peso que ofrecen la esperanza de poder deshacerse de los kilos de más.

Durante años, los expertos han debatido sobre qué aconsejar a los adultos mayores en esta situación. Por un lado, el aumento de peso se asocia a la acumulación de grasa. Y eso puede tener graves consecuencias para la salud, contribuyendo a enfermedades cardiacas, diabetes, artritis y un sinfín de otras afecciones médicas.

Por otro lado, numerosos estudios sugieren que tener algo de peso de más a veces puede ser protector en las etapas posteriores de la vida. Para las personas que se caen, la grasa puede servir de acolchado, protegiéndolas de las fracturas. Y para las personas gravemente enfermas de cáncer o insuficiencia renal avanzada, ese acolchado puede ser una fuente de energía que les ayude a tolerar terapias exigentes.

Por supuesto, todo depende del peso inicial de cada persona. Las personas ya obesas (con un índice de masa corporal igual o superior a 30) que engordan más corren más riesgo que las que pesan menos. Y un rápido aumento de peso a una edad avanzada siempre es motivo de preocupación.

Comprender las pruebas científicas y la opinión de los expertos sobre los problemas de peso en los adultos mayores no es fácil. Lo que sigue es lo que he aprendido tras revisar docenas de estudios y hablar con casi dos docenas de médicos e investigadores de la obesidad.

Nuestro cuerpo cambia con la edad. A medida que envejecemos, nuestra composición corporal varía. Perdemos masa muscular —un proceso que comienza a los 30 años y se acelera a partir de los 60— y ganamos grasa. Esto es cierto incluso cuando nuestro peso se mantiene constante.

Además, se acumula menos grasa bajo la piel y más en la parte central del cuerpo. Esta grasa abdominal se asocia a inflamación y resistencia a la insulina y a un mayor riesgo de enfermedades cardiovasculares, diabetes e ictus, entre otras dolencias.

“La distribución de la grasa desempeña un papel fundamental a la hora de determinar hasta qué punto es nocivo el peso añadido en forma de grasa”, afirmó Mitchell Lazar, director del Instituto de Diabetes, Obesidad y Metabolismo de la Facultad de Medicina Perelman de la Universidad de Pennsylvania. “Es la grasa visceral [abdominal] [alrededor de la cintura], más que la periférica [en caderas y nalgas] la que realmente nos preocupa”.

Los niveles de actividad disminuyen con la edad. Además, con la edad, las personas tienden a ser menos activas. Cuando los adultos mayores mantienen los mismos hábitos alimentarios (ingesta de energía) mientras reducen la actividad (gasto de energía), van a ganar peso.

Según los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (CDC), el 27% de las personas de 65 a 74 años son físicamente inactivas fuera del trabajo, porcentaje que aumenta hasta el 35% a partir de los 75 años. Para los adultos mayores, los CDC recomiendan al menos 150 minutos semanales de actividad moderadamente intensa, como caminar a paso ligero, así como actividades de fortalecimiento muscular, como levantar pesas, al menos dos veces por semana. Según diversas encuestas, sólo entre el 27% y el 44% de los adultos mayores cumplen estas directrices.

Preocupación por la masa muscular. A los expertos les preocupa más la falta de actividad en los adultos mayores con sobrepeso u obesidad leve (un índice de masa corporal por debajo de los 30) que la pérdida de peso. Con una actividad mínima o nula, la masa muscular se deteriora y la fuerza disminuye, lo que “aumenta el riesgo de desarrollar una discapacidad o un deterioro funcional” que puede interferir con la independencia, según John Batsis, investigador de la obesidad y profesor en la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte en Chapel Hill.

La pérdida de peso contribuye a una masa muscular inadecuada en la medida en que el músculo se pierde junto con la grasa. Por cada kilo que se pierde, el 25% procede del músculo y el 75% de la grasa, por término medio.

Dado que los adultos mayores tienen menos músculo, “si quieren perder peso, tienen que estar dispuestos al mismo tiempo a aumentar la actividad física”, dijo Anne Newman, directora del Centro de Envejecimiento y Salud de la Población de la Facultad de Salud Pública de la Universidad de Pittsburgh.

El peso corporal ideal puede ser mayor. Las investigaciones epidemiológicas sugieren que el índice de masa corporal (IMC) ideal podría ser mayor en los adultos mayores que en los jóvenes. (El IMC es una medida del peso de una persona, en kilogramos o libras, dividido por el cuadrado de su altura, en metros o pies).

Un amplio y prestigioso estudio descubrió que los mayores situados en los extremos del espectro del IMC —los que tenían un IMC bajo (menos de 22) y los que tenían un IMC alto (más de 33)— corrían un mayor riesgo de morir antes que los que tenían un IMC en la franja media (de 22 a 32,9).

Los adultos mayores con menor riesgo de morir antes tenían IMC de 27 a 27,9. Según los estándares de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), esta cifra se sitúa en el rango de “sobrepeso” (25 a 29,9) y por encima del rango de IMC de “peso saludable” (18,5 a 24,9). Además, muchos de los ancianos que, según el estudio, presentaban un mayor riesgo de mortalidad —los que tenían un IMC inferior a 22— estarían clasificados como de “peso saludable” según la OMS.

Conclusión del estudio: “El rango de peso saludable de la OMS puede no ser adecuado para los adultos mayores”. Por el contrario, tener sobrepeso puede ser beneficioso para los adultos mayores, mientras que estar notablemente delgado puede ser problemático, contribuyendo al potencial de fragilidad.

De hecho, un IMC óptimo para las personas mayores podría situarse entre 24 y 29, según sugirió Carl Lavie, conocido investigador de la obesidad, en otro estudio en el que se revisaban las pruebas sobre la obesidad en los mayores. Lavie es director médico de rehabilitación cardiaca y prevención en Ochsner Health, un gran sistema sanitario de Nueva Orleans, y autor de “The Obesity Paradox” (La paradoja de la obesidad), un libro que analiza los problemas de peso en las personas mayores.

Recomendaciones de los expertos. Los médicos e investigadores especializados en obesidad ofrecieron varias recomendaciones importantes durante nuestras conversaciones:

— Mantener la forma física y la masa muscular es más importante que perder peso para los adultos mayores con sobrepeso (aquellos con IMC de 25 a 29,9). “¿Perder unos kilos de más va a mejorar drásticamente su salud? No creo que las pruebas lo demuestren”, señaló Lavie.

— La pérdida de peso involuntaria se asocia a varias enfermedades graves y es una señal de peligro a la que siempre hay que prestar atención. “Consulte a su médico si está perdiendo peso sin pretenderlo”, dijo Newman, de la Universidad de Pittsburgh. Ella es coautora de un nuevo trabajo en el que se constata que “la pérdida de peso imprevista, incluso entre adultos con obesidad, se asocia a un mayor riesgo de mortalidad”.

— Garantizar la calidad de la dieta es esencial. “Los adultos mayores corren el riesgo de sufrir carencias vitamínicas y otros déficits nutricionales, y si no consumen suficientes proteínas, eso es un problema”, indicó Batsis, de la Universidad de Carolina del Norte. “Yo les digo a todos mis pacientes mayores que tomen un multivitamínico”, afirmó Dinesh Edem, director del programa de Control Médico del Peso de la Universidad de Arkansas para las Ciencias Médicas.

— Perder peso es más importante para las personas mayores que tienen mucha grasa alrededor de la cintura (forma de manzana) que para las que pesan más abajo (forma de pera). “En el caso de los pacientes con un perímetro de cintura alto, somos más agresivos a la hora de reducir calorías o aumentar el ejercicio”, explicó Dennis Kerrigan, director de control de peso de Henry Ford Health, en Michigan. — Mantener la estabilidad del peso es un buen objetivo para los mayores sanos con sobrepeso, pero que no padecen obesidad moderada o grave (IMC de 35 o más). Por definición, “sano” significa que las personas no tienen problemas metabólicos graves (colesterol, azúcar en sangre, tensión arterial y triglicéridos demasiado altos), discapacidades relacionadas con la obesidad (son frecuentes los problemas de movilidad) o enfermedades graves relacionadas con la obesidad, como diabetes o cardiopatías. “Ni grandes ganancias ni grandes pérdidas: eso es lo que recomiendo”, afirmó Katie Dodd, dietista geriátrica que escribe un blog sobre nutrición.

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Algunos médicos e investigadores que están interesados en un enfoque más individualizado para encontrar tumores problemáticos se muestran escépticos y plantean preguntas sobre los datos y el razonamiento detrás del cambio radical del Grupo de Trabajo de Servicios Preventivos de Estados Unidos con respecto a sus pautas de 2016.

“La evidencia para que todas comiencen a los 40 no es convincente”, dijo Jeffrey Tice, profesor de medicina en la Universidad de California-San Francisco.

Tice es parte del equipo de investigación del estudio WISDOM, que tiene como objetivo, en palabras de Laura Esserman, cirujana de cáncer de seno y líder del equipo, “hacer pruebas de manera más inteligente, no probar más”. Esserman lanzó el estudio en curso en 2016 con el objetivo de adaptar las pruebas de detección al riesgo de una mujer, y poner fin al debate sobre cuándo iniciar las mamografías.

Los defensores de un enfoque personalizado enfatizan los costos de la detección universal a los 40, no en dólares, sino en resultados falsos positivos, biopsias innecesarias, sobretratamiento y ansiedad.

Las pautas provienen del Grupo de Trabajo de Servicios Preventivos de Estados Unidos, parte del Departamento de Salud y Servicios Humanos (HHS) federal, un panel independiente de 16 expertos médicos voluntarios que se encargan de ayudar a guiar a los médicos, aseguradoras de salud y legisladores.

En 2009, y de nuevo en 2016, el grupo presentó el aviso actual, que elevó la edad para comenzar la mamografía de rutina de 40 a 50 años e instó a las mujeres de 50 a 74 a hacérselas cada dos años.

Las mujeres de 40 a 49 años que “le otorgan un mayor valor al beneficio potencial que a los daños potenciales” también deberían someterse al procedimiento de detección, dijo el grupo de trabajo.

Ahora, el grupo ha publicado un borrador de una actualización de sus directrices, recomendando la detección para todas las mujeres a partir de los 40 años.

“Esta nueva recomendación ayudará a salvar vidas y evitará que más mujeres mueran debido al cáncer de mama”, dijo Carol Mangione, profesora de medicina y salud pública en UCLA, quien presidió el panel.

Pero la evidencia no es clara. Karla Kerlikowske, profesora de la UCSF que ha estado investigando la mamografía desde la década de 1990, dijo que no vio una diferencia en los datos que justificara el cambio. Dijo que la única forma en que podía explicar las nuevas pautas era un cambio en el panel.

“Son diferentes miembros del grupo de trabajo”, dijo. “Interpretaron los beneficios y los daños de manera diferente”.

Sin embargo, Mangione citó dos puntos de datos como impulsores cruciales de las nuevas recomendaciones: el aumento de la incidencia de cáncer de mama en mujeres más jóvenes, y modelos que muestran la cantidad de vidas que podrían salvar las pruebas de detección, especialmente entre las mujeres negras.

No hay evidencia directa de que evaluar a mujeres de 40 años salve vidas, dijo. La cantidad de mujeres que murieron de cáncer de mama disminuyó de manera constante desde 1992 hasta 2020, debido en parte a una detección más temprana y a mejores tratamientos.

Pero los modelos predictivos que construyó el grupo de trabajo, basados en varias suposiciones en lugar de datos reales, encontraron que expandir la mamografía a mujeres de 40 años podría evitar 1.3 muertes adicionales por cada 1,000 en esa cohorte, dijo Mangione. Lo más crítico, agregó, es que un nuevo modelo que incluye solo mujeres negras mostró que se podría salvar 1.8 por 1,000.

Un aumento anual del 2% en la cantidad de personas de 40 a 49 años diagnosticadas con cáncer de mama en el país entre 2016 y 2019 alertó al grupo de trabajo sobre una tendencia preocupante, dijo.

Mangione lo llamó un “salto realmente considerable”. Pero Kerlikowske lo llamó “bastante pequeño” y Tice lo llamó “muy modesto”: percepciones contradictorias que subrayan cuánta subjetividad está involucrada en la ciencia de las pautas de salud preventiva.

A los miembros del grupo de trabajo los designa la Agencia para la Investigación y la Calidad de la Atención Médica del HHS, y cumplen mandatos de cuatro años. El nuevo borrador de las pautas está abierto para comentarios públicos hasta el 5 de junio. Después de incorporar los comentarios, el grupo de trabajo planea publicar su recomendación final en JAMA, la revista de la Asociación Médica Estadounidense.

Cerca de 300,000 mujeres serán diagnosticadas con cáncer de mama en el país este año, y morirán más de 43,000 por este mal, según proyecciones del Instituto Nacional del Cáncer. Muchos consideran que expandir la detección para incluir a mujeres más jóvenes es una forma obvia de detectar el cáncer antes y salvar vidas.

Pero los críticos de las nuevas pautas argumentan que hay verdaderas concesiones.

“¿Por qué no empezar al nacer?”, ironizó Steven Woloshin, profesor del Instituto de Políticas de Salud y Práctica Clínica de Dartmouth. “¿Por qué no todos los días?”.

“Si no hubiera inconvenientes, eso podría ser razonable”, dijo. “El problema son los falsos positivos, que dan mucho miedo. El otro problema es el sobrediagnóstico”. Algunos tumores de mama son inofensivos y el tratamiento puede ser peor que la enfermedad, enfatizó.

Tice estuvo de acuerdo en que el sobretratamiento es un problema subestimado.

“Estos cánceres nunca causarían síntomas”, dijo, refiriéndose a ciertos tipos de tumores. “Algunos simplemente retroceden, se encogen y desaparecen, son de crecimiento tan lento que una mujer muere de otra cosa antes de que causen problemas”.

Las pruebas de detección tienden a encontrar cánceres de crecimiento lento que tienen menos probabilidades de causar síntomas, dijo. Por el contrario, las mujeres a veces descubren cánceres letales de crecimiento rápido poco después de haberse realizado mamografías que salieron normales.

“Nuestro fuerte sentimiento es que una sola talla no sirve para todos y que debe personalizarse”, dijo Tice.

WISDOM, que significa “Mujeres informadas para evaluar según las medidas de riesgo”, evalúa el riesgo de las participantes a los 40 mediante la revisión de los antecedentes familiares y la secuenciación de nueve genes. La idea es comenzar con mamografías periódicas de inmediato para las mujeres de alto riesgo mientras que esperar para las de menos.

Las mujeres negras no hispanas tienen más probabilidades de hacerse mamografías de detección que las mujeres blancas no hispanas. Sin embargo, tienen un 40% más de probabilidades de morir de cáncer de seno y de que les diagnostiquen cánceres mortales a edades más tempranas.

El grupo de trabajo espera que las mujeres negras se beneficien más de la detección temprana, dijo Mangione.

No está claro por qué las mujeres negras tienen más probabilidades de sufrir cánceres de mama más letales, pero las investigaciones apuntan a disparidades en el tratamiento.

“Las mujeres negras no obtienen un seguimiento de las mamografías tan rápido ni un tratamiento adecuado tan rápido”, dijo Tice. “Eso es lo que realmente impulsa las discrepancias en la mortalidad”.

También continúa el debate sobre la detección en mujeres de 75 a 79 años. El grupo de trabajo optó por no pedir pruebas de detección de rutina en el grupo de mayor edad porque un estudio observacional no mostró ningún beneficio, dijo Mangione. Pero el panel emitió un llamado urgente para investigar si las mujeres de 75 años o más deberían hacerse una mamografía de rutina.

Los modelos sugieren que evaluar a las mujeres mayores podría evitar 2,5 muertes por cada 1,000 mujeres en ese grupo de edad, más de las que se salvarían al expandir la evaluación a las mujeres más jóvenes, apuntó Kerlikowske.

“Siempre decimos que las mujeres mayores de 75 años deberían decidir junto con sus médicos si se hacen mamografías, según sus preferencias, valores, historial familiar y de salud”, dijo Mangione.

Tice, Kerlikowske y Woloshin argumentan que lo mismo es cierto para las mujeres de 40 años.

Esta historia fue producida por KFF Health News, que publica California Healthline, un servicio editorialmente independiente de la California Health Care Foundation.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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Some doctors and researchers who are invested in a more individualized approach to finding troublesome tumors are skeptical, raising questions about the data and the reasoning behind the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force’s about-face from its 2016 guidelines.

“The evidence isn’t compelling to start everyone at 40,” said Jeffrey Tice, a professor of medicine at the University of California-San Francisco.

Tice is part of the WISDOM study research team, which aims, in the words of breast cancer surgeon and team leader Laura Esserman, “to test smarter, not test more.” She launched the ongoing study in 2016 with the goal of tailoring screening to a woman’s risk and putting an end to the debate over when to get mammograms.

Advocates of a personalized approach stress the costs of universal screening at 40 — not in dollars, but rather in false-positive results, unnecessary biopsies, overtreatment, and anxiety.

The guidelines come from the federal Department of Health and Human Services’ U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent panel of 16 volunteer medical experts who are charged with helping guide doctors, health insurers, and policymakers. In 2009 and again in 2016, the group put forward the current advisory, which raised the age to start routine mammography from 40 to 50 and urged women from 50 to 74 to get mammograms every two years. Women from 40 to 49 who “place a higher value on the potential benefit than the potential harms” might also seek screening, the task force said.

Now the task force has issued a draft of an update to its guidelines, recommending the screening for all women beginning at age 40.

“This new recommendation will help save lives and prevent more women from dying due to breast cancer,” said Carol Mangione, a professor of medicine and public health at UCLA, who chaired the panel.

But the evidence isn’t clear-cut. Karla Kerlikowske, a professor at UCSF who has been researching mammography since the 1990s, said she didn’t see a difference in the data that would warrant the change. The only way she could explain the new guidelines, she said, was a change in the panel.

“It’s different task force members,” she said. “They interpreted the benefits and harms differently.”

Mangione, however, cited two data points as crucial drivers of the new recommendations: rising breast cancer incidence in younger women and models showing the number of lives screening might save, especially among Black women.

There is no direct evidence that screening women in their 40s will save lives, she said. The number of women who died of breast cancer declined steadily from 1992 to 2020, due in part to earlier detection and better treatment.

But the predictive models the task force built, based on various assumptions rather than actual data, found that expanding mammography to women in their 40s might avert an additional 1.3 deaths per 1,000 in that cohort, Mangione said. Most critically, she said, a new model including only Black women showed 1.8 per 1,000 could be saved.

A 2% annual increase in the number of 40- to 49-year-olds diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.S. from 2016 through 2019 alerted the task force to a concerning trend, she said.

Mangione called that a “really sizable jump.” But Kerlikowske called it “pretty small,” and Tice called it “very modest” — conflicting perceptions that underscore just how much art is involved in the science of preventive health guidelines.

Task force members are appointed by HHS’ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and serve four-year terms. The new draft guidelines are open for public comment until June 5. After incorporating feedback, the task force plans to publish its final recommendation in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Nearly 300,000 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.S. this year, and it will kill more than 43,000, according to National Cancer Institute projections. Expanding screening to include younger women is seen by many as an obvious way to detect cancer earlier and save lives.

But critics of the new guidelines argue there are real trade-offs.

“Why not start at birth?” Steven Woloshin, a professor at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, asked rhetorically. “Why not every day?”

“If there were no downsides, that might be reasonable,” he said. “The problem is false positives, which are very scary. The other problem is overdiagnosis.” Some breast tumors are harmless, and the treatment can be worse than the disease, he said.

Tice agreed that overtreatment is an underappreciated problem.

“These cancers would never cause symptoms,” he said, referring to certain kinds of tumors. “Some just regress, shrink, and go away, are just so slow-growing that a woman dies of something else before it causes problems.”

Screening tends to find slow-growing cancers that are less likely to cause symptoms, he said. Conversely, women sometimes discover fast-growing lethal cancers soon after they’ve had clean mammograms.

“Our strong feeling is that one size does not fit all, and that it needs to be personalized,” Tice said.

WISDOM, which stands for “Women Informed to Screen Depending On Measures of risk,” assesses participants’ risk at 40 by reviewing family history and sequencing nine genes. The idea is to start regular mammography immediately for high-risk women while waiting for those at lower risk.

Black women are more likely to get screening mammograms than white women. Yet they are 40% more likely to die of breast cancer and are more likely to be diagnosed with deadly cancers at younger ages.

The task force expects Black women to benefit most from earlier screening, Mangione said.

It’s unclear why Black women are more likely to get the most lethal breast cancers, but research points to disparities in cancer management.

“Black women don’t get follow-up from mammograms as rapidly or appropriate treatment as quickly,” Tice said. “That’s what really drives the discrepancies in mortality.”

Debate also continues on screening for women 75 to 79 years old. The task force chose not to call for routine screening in the older age group because one observational study showed no benefit, Mangione said. But the panel issued an urgent call for research about whether women 75 and older should receive routine mammography.

Modeling suggests screening older women could avert 2.5 deaths per 1,000 women in that age group, more than those saved by expanding screening to younger women, Kerlikowske noted.

“We always say women over 75 should decide together with their clinicians whether to have mammograms based on their preferences, their values, their health history, and their family history,” Mangione said.

Tice, Kerlikowske, and Woloshin argue the same holds true for women in their 40s.

This article was produced by KFF Health News, which publishes California Healthline, an editorially independent service of the California Health Care Foundation. 

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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This story can be republished for free (details).

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